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I mean, it feels completely inevitable. Of course Joe Biden, who has been failing at running for president for longer than I've been alive wouldn't suddenly win. Of course the mythical wealthy old racist suburburbian swing voters who voted straight Republican all their lives would not massively break D now.
by generic on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:19:54 PM EST
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Eh.  The suburbanites actually did break to Biden.

The Hispanic/Latino vote is where Biden fell way short.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:33:28 PM EST
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I haven't seen any suburbs broken out of data, but that doesn't look like a successful "lose one blue collar, win two suburbs" result to me;

by generic on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 02:42:37 PM EST
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This could all be true, of course, but I think people are taking these exit polls far too seriously.  I didn't even look at the exits last night.

Given the differences in how people are voting this year, I think it's highly questionable that Edison was about to get a good, properly-weighted sample.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 02:55:56 PM EST
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Sure, it's probably all bullshit at the moment. Today of all days is not a good time to start taking pols seriously.
by generic on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:13:32 PM EST
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Yeah, I think given the results in some areas (with some variance by state/region), we can say a few things:

1/ Trump made gains with Latino folks -- especially Cubans but also non-Cubans.

2/ Biden didn't get the gains he needed with seniors.

3/ Biden roughly hit expectations in the suburbs.

How big those shifts were nationwide is tough to tell:  For example, Trump seems to have managed double-digit shifts along the border in Texas with Latino folks, Biden seems to have managed double-digit shifts in the suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta.  In other places, the shifts seem more muted.

Beyond that, I don't think we can say a whole lot about the demographic movements.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:20:22 PM EST
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With the amount of early vote and mail-I   vote and the correlation of those with Democratic vote, I don't think exit polls are very reliable this time around.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:04:00 PM EST
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