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I haven't seen any suburbs broken out of data, but that doesn't look like a successful "lose one blue collar, win two suburbs" result to me;

by generic on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 02:42:37 PM EST
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This could all be true, of course, but I think people are taking these exit polls far too seriously.  I didn't even look at the exits last night.

Given the differences in how people are voting this year, I think it's highly questionable that Edison was about to get a good, properly-weighted sample.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 02:55:56 PM EST
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Sure, it's probably all bullshit at the moment. Today of all days is not a good time to start taking pols seriously.
by generic on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:13:32 PM EST
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Yeah, I think given the results in some areas (with some variance by state/region), we can say a few things:

1/ Trump made gains with Latino folks -- especially Cubans but also non-Cubans.

2/ Biden didn't get the gains he needed with seniors.

3/ Biden roughly hit expectations in the suburbs.

How big those shifts were nationwide is tough to tell:  For example, Trump seems to have managed double-digit shifts along the border in Texas with Latino folks, Biden seems to have managed double-digit shifts in the suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta.  In other places, the shifts seem more muted.

Beyond that, I don't think we can say a whole lot about the demographic movements.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:20:22 PM EST
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With the amount of early vote and mail-I   vote and the correlation of those with Democratic vote, I don't think exit polls are very reliable this time around.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:04:00 PM EST
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