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Unfortunately an update on 538 suggests that interpretation was incorrect.

Not sure if AZ is still in play for Trump, but at best it's going to be much closer than hoped.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:36:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, there was apparently some glitch at the Arizona Secretary of State's website?  Apparently it's only 86%.

From what I understand, Biden is still a heavy favorite given what's outstanding, but it's not in the bag yet.

The Wisconsin SOS says they're done counting, and Biden's up 22k votes, so he's probably got that.

I think he'll get Michigan, because it seems to be all mail votes and tilted heavily towards Metro Detroit.

So that'd be 270.

I've no earthly idea where we land in Georgia and Pennsylvania.  The PA margin closed quite a bit as some votes came in from the Philly region -- and again, I think it's basically just mail voting left now, so it should continue closing.

In Georgia, Trump's up about 2% (102k votes), but it sounds like we still have quite a bit left from ATL and the suburbs (especially southern suburbs which are more heavily Dem).  But, like PA, no idea how that shakes out.  The data folks at the NYT think Biden's about a 2/1 favorite there.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:04:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Captain Oompa Loompa is not happy about how it's going.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324032541544927233

Obviously he's going to declare victory regardless, but... whatever.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:29:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, they're floating trial balloons about "legal routes" in PA and GA, which probably says a lot.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:34:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
PA margin's gone from Trump +16 or 17 to Trump +8 already, and we have a lot of Pittsburgh -- both proper and "collar counties" -- Philly left.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:37:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump is going to ask for a recount in Wisconsin so strike that one from Biden's column.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:05:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He's going to ask for recounts everywhere. Total waste of everyone's time.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:25:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's a waste of everyone's time? His game is to prevent results from being certified so Republican state legislatures get to appoint the Electors. That's definitely not a waste of his people's time.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:21:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a waste of time when it's a ridiculously overt attempt to steal the election.

A 20k recount? That's an unhinged attempt to delegitimise a legitimate result just because it didn't go his way. Even if the goal is to prevent certification that's a hail mary pass, not a credible election-winning strategy.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:50:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have the same thought here that I had with DeSantis and Rick Scott in 2018:

A recount isn't at all likely to move 20k votes.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:30:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Florida in 2000:  Sure, it's 500 votes.  A recount could change that.

20k in Wisconsin?  No.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:32:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He doesn't want to change the result. He wants to prevent the result from being certified.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:21:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I'm not mistaken the Florida recount was never completed among other things because of violence by Bush supporters. Then came the state court decision to stop the recount on equal protection grounds which the SCotUS upheld.

The point is not to complete the recounts.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:28:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it wasn't completed.  But, again, that's 500 votes in a state of then -- what, 16 million or so?  We're talking 20,000 votes in a state of, like, 17 sausage-makers and brewers.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 01:01:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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