Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Somebody finally pulled the plug on RealClearPolitics today:

RCP's averages this cycle just haven't been a fair average of the polling that's out there. Instead, cut offs are fairly deliberately set to show better results for Trump.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 04:34:12 PM EST
See my earlier comment taking average of polls is deceiving and statistically nonsense ... FiveThirtyEight lists the quality ranking of polls and one can filter the poor ones out  Bij tomorrow night we'll ridicule many pollsters that were way off.

It has been clear 😉 RCP listed the Rasmussen and Emerson polls more frequent that the true quality polls, that kept the average low to optically keep Trump in the race.

See the comparison with Andrew Johnson above. Trump has solidified his base of radicals during the four years ... that's approx. 35% of the electorate ... the Red States will turn Dark Red while he lost the Mid West Great Lakes states which he so surprisingly managed to steal from Hillary Clinton. Trump is toast.

by Oui on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 06:48:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Waving the White Flag ... the Insiders Know 🤗

Wall Street gains at open on Biden victory bets | CNBC |

by Oui on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 07:12:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Final forecast FiveThirtyEight

Nonetheless, Biden's standing is considerably stronger than Clinton's at the end of the 2016 race. His lead is larger than Clinton's in every battleground state, and more than double her lead nationally. Our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 8 percentage points, 1 more than twice Clinton's projected margin at the end of 2016.

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:49:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin Lead by Seventeen Points

Death of National Polls as a guide for the American voter ...

The Polling Crisis Is a Catastrophe for American Democracy | The Atlantic |

This is a disaster for the polling industry and for media outlets and analysts that package and interpret the polls for public consumption, such as FiveThirtyEight, The New York Times' Upshot, and The Economist's election unit. They now face serious existential questions. But the greatest problem posed by the polling crisis is not in the presidential election, where the snapshots provided by polling are ultimately measured against an actual tally of votes: As the political cliché goes, the only poll that matters is on Election Day.

by Oui on Sun Nov 8th, 2020 at 01:12:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are a lot of people out there who won't answer honestly if they intend to vote fascist.  Imagine that.
by rifek on Fri Nov 13th, 2020 at 11:53:29 PM EST
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You think Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight should retire? Quite disturbing on presidential poll and I don't need Monday morning quarterbacking.
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 10:38:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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