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Accordng to NYT Screen scraper h/t  epochepoque, voting trends are as follows:

Arizona - Biden leading +29,861 , Trump needs 57% of remaining vote to win but s only getting 54% - Likely outcome: V. Narrow win for Biden

Georgia - Biden lead of +7248 rising with each new batch of votes counted. Likely outcome: V. Narrow win for Biden

Nevada - Biden lead of +22,657 increasing with each new batch of votes counted - Trump needs 58% of outstanding vote to win but getting only 31. Likely outcome:  Substantial win for Biden

Pennsylvania - Biden lead of + 28,833 rising with each new batch of votes counted. Likely outcome:  Substantial win for Biden  by 60-70K.

North Carolina: Trump lead of +76,515. Biden narrowing gap as outstanding votes counted, but not by enough.
Likely outcome:  Narrow win for Trump

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Nov 7th, 2020 at 09:25:31 AM EST
Arizona had been called prematurely (by Fox News, no less) due to an error in the reporting of the percentage of counted ballots: turned out that percentage was much lower at the time, and Trump could, in theory, catch up. Still, AP and other media keep Arizona has 'won' by Biden and his current EV count at 264. Only the Beeb and other outlets have "uncalled" AZ and show 253 EV for Biden, as of Saturday, 10:00 GMT.

As you pointed out, Trump's percentage of the remaining ballots are not high enough so far. Biden win should be narrow.

Even if Arizona and Nevada are enough for a 270 College win, it's still important for the Biden ticket to win other states: blame my engineering background, but a single point of failure is always dangerous and an pen door to shenanigans (think Florida 2000). Overturning the vote results in one state may be an uphill battle for Trump and the Repubs (we know they'll try), but in two or even three states, it would be a daunting task.

Beyond the safety buffer consideration, a larger EV count is also important politically: a narrow win would help the Repubs push the "illegitimate president Biden" narrative - again, we know they will push it anyway, but an Electoral College win of over 300 will make it more difficult. It doesn't matter that Biden-Harris has won the popular vote by 4 millions: nobody outside of Europe pays attention to it (does anyone remember that Al Gore and Hillary Clinton both won the popular vote?). There is also the political impact to the down-ticket races, the most important of these being the two Georgia US Senate seats headed for runoff in early January.

by Bernard on Sat Nov 7th, 2020 at 10:11:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump Allies Suggest Electoral College Could Overturn A Biden Win | Forbes|

As President Donald Trump's campaign attempts to stave off defeat by raising baseless allegations of voter fraud, a handful of his supporters are suggesting that Republican-controlled state legislatures ignore the voters' will and appoint pro-Trump representatives to the Electoral College,

Preview

Electoral College & Indecisive Elections

"There are only two options, you are either a fighter or you are a loser."
[Source: Fred Trump]

by Oui on Sat Nov 7th, 2020 at 10:46:58 AM EST
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by Oui on Sat Nov 7th, 2020 at 06:33:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Drudge Report:

by Bernard on Sat Nov 7th, 2020 at 06:52:00 PM EST
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If Biden wins Georgia, even by a very tight margin, it could put both the Senate seats in Georgia in play on January 5th., and result in Dem control of the trifecta of President, House and Senate. High Dem and low GOP morale would be critical to those victories, and so Trump's shenanigans in the White House could have a major impact. Let him rant and rave for two months yet - until voters are fed up enough to grant Dems overall control...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Nov 7th, 2020 at 11:28:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Biden would have to win 0ver 72% of outstanding mail-in and provisional ballots to win N. Carolina - not out of the question given patterns elsewhere, but it could be over a week before we know.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Nov 7th, 2020 at 11:19:07 AM EST
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h/t to you for the Robert Fisk obit

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Sat Nov 7th, 2020 at 05:48:43 PM EST
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It's a great Obit by his former wife - who is a good correspondent in her own right. I didn't realise I had posted a link to it here.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Nov 7th, 2020 at 06:13:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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