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Arizona had been called prematurely (by Fox News, no less) due to an error in the reporting of the percentage of counted ballots: turned out that percentage was much lower at the time, and Trump could, in theory, catch up. Still, AP and other media keep Arizona has 'won' by Biden and his current EV count at 264. Only the Beeb and other outlets have "uncalled" AZ and show 253 EV for Biden, as of Saturday, 10:00 GMT.

As you pointed out, Trump's percentage of the remaining ballots are not high enough so far. Biden win should be narrow.

Even if Arizona and Nevada are enough for a 270 College win, it's still important for the Biden ticket to win other states: blame my engineering background, but a single point of failure is always dangerous and an pen door to shenanigans (think Florida 2000). Overturning the vote results in one state may be an uphill battle for Trump and the Repubs (we know they'll try), but in two or even three states, it would be a daunting task.

Beyond the safety buffer consideration, a larger EV count is also important politically: a narrow win would help the Repubs push the "illegitimate president Biden" narrative - again, we know they will push it anyway, but an Electoral College win of over 300 will make it more difficult. It doesn't matter that Biden-Harris has won the popular vote by 4 millions: nobody outside of Europe pays attention to it (does anyone remember that Al Gore and Hillary Clinton both won the popular vote?). There is also the political impact to the down-ticket races, the most important of these being the two Georgia US Senate seats headed for runoff in early January.

by Bernard on Sat Nov 7th, 2020 at 10:11:57 AM EST
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