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Even if there is an agreement, which I doubt, there are only 15 days left for it to be voted on and passed by the 28 countries in the EU and the UK parliament.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Dec 16th, 2020 at 04:46:27 PM EST
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If a deal is agreed before January 1st., it can be allowed to come into effect "provisionally" pending parliamentary approval. This only becomes a problem if some parliament then fails to approve it, and in my main scenario, written over two months ago, it is the UK Parliament which ultimately fails to ratify it, resulting in a five year trade war.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Dec 16th, 2020 at 06:30:27 PM EST
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I do not share your assumption the EU nations will rush through and automatically approve an agreement.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Dec 16th, 2020 at 08:04:58 PM EST
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Seems to me there are several relevant time scales, regardless of the agreement status.

  • 1 January, chaos at the ports, no immediate economic effects
  • End of January, manufacturing problems due to delivery delays
  • A few months later, stability, with obviously unsatisfactory long-term conditions

The question is when the grocery stores are going to display significant shortfalls. Here in the US we recently went without paper products for a couple of months due entirely to hoarding.
by asdf on Wed Dec 16th, 2020 at 08:35:34 PM EST
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Boris claims sovereignty ... let's not overlook Wallonia this December 🤣

CETA, Wallonia and sovereignty in Europe | EurActive - Oct. 28, 2016 |

by Oui on Wed Dec 16th, 2020 at 09:08:20 PM EST
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That was four years ago. This was last week:

Wallonia threatens to veto Brexit deal

Minister-President of the Walloon Region, Elio Di Rupo (PS), said he does not rule out blocking future trade agreements, such as a previous regional Walloon government did a few years ago with CETA.

"We've been living according to Boris Johnson's moods. His attitude does not allow us to see clearly in the future of relations between the EU and the United Kingdom," Di Rupo tweeted on Wednesday.

According to the former Belgian prime minister, a `no-deal Brexit' could lead to a loss of up to five thousand jobs in Wallonia.

"I will not hesitate to ask my parliament to use its right of veto, as was the case for the #CETA if future trade agreements with the United Kingdom cross the red lines set by my Government," he said.

Then again , the British tabloids are all about the threat of a French veto, the usual bogeyman. At least they can put us on a map (the duty-free booze store on the other side of the Dover strait), but the Express had a "Where is Wallonia? The tiny regional Parliament that is threatening chance of Brexit deal" headline.

by Bernard on Wed Dec 16th, 2020 at 09:22:46 PM EST
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I make no such presumption for any parliament, although most, where the government has a stable majority, will probably endorse a deal if Barnier sticks to their red lines and it is agreed by the Commission and a majority of the Council on their behalf.

Macron way make a show of refusing to ratify if the fishing deal is not to his satisfaction, and Ireland may require a referendum, but for me the greatest risk of non-ratification comes from the UK, if the ERG don't get the pure Brexit they have insisted should be pursued.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Dec 16th, 2020 at 10:10:57 PM EST
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Ireland may require a referendum

There's exactly 2 weeks left.  No agreement has been hammered out.  Brits are making noises that talks will have to go on until after Christmas.

And Ireland may have to have a referendum?

I submit: the time; it has run out.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Dec 17th, 2020 at 06:14:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Dec 17th, 2020 at 06:54:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Dec 17th, 2020 at 06:56:04 PM EST
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I'm finding it hard to imagine a 2020 panto which doesn't end with the entire cast dead and hordes of zombies trying to eat the brains of the audience.

But - I don't know - maybe that's just me.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Dec 17th, 2020 at 08:03:33 PM EST
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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Dec 17th, 2020 at 08:07:09 PM EST
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Why - do you want to buy a ticket?
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Dec 17th, 2020 at 10:25:05 PM EST
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Not to your Panto - thanks!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Dec 17th, 2020 at 11:51:39 PM EST
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