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Seems to me there are several relevant time scales, regardless of the agreement status.

  • 1 January, chaos at the ports, no immediate economic effects
  • End of January, manufacturing problems due to delivery delays
  • A few months later, stability, with obviously unsatisfactory long-term conditions

The question is when the grocery stores are going to display significant shortfalls. Here in the US we recently went without paper products for a couple of months due entirely to hoarding.
by asdf on Wed Dec 16th, 2020 at 08:35:34 PM EST
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