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Contrary to rumour, the Irish people are not obsessed with the notion that Britain should lose with the deal. They will, however, be rather more interested in how Ireland will gain.

If the comparison is with the Status quo, Ireland will lose its "Union" with N. Ireland, some access to fish, and increased red tape around trade with Britain. The loss of the UK's net contribution to the EU will also mean Ireland's net contribution will have to go up.

However if we take Brexit as a given (and the right of the UK people), the more correct comparison is with NO DEAL, under which Irish agricultural exports to the UK will be subject to swingeing tariffs of up to 70% and a whole lot more red tape.

So it will be about economic self interest versus anger that the peace process has been desecrated so wantonly. The UK may even offer a referendum on Irish unification in N. Ireland to defuse the latter, although I doubt this will be helpful at this time.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Dec 27th, 2020 at 02:28:24 PM EST
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