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As leader of the third largest party, Leo is in no position to lead anything right now. His best option is Leader of the opposition and hope FF and SF destroy each other in government followed by FG becoming the largest party after the next election.

His second best option is coalition with FF where Martin gets first go at being Taoiseach for 2 years, followed by Leo for another two: Following which either or both FF and FG will implode and SF becomes the largest party by far.

This is a battle for survival between FF and FG as to who becomes the dominant conservative party in opposition to SF. Three roughly equal large parties is fundamentally unstable and will resolve itself into two big and one small party in due course.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Feb 25th, 2020 at 10:39:05 PM EST
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