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Actually, the whole post from Tomas Pueyo is a must-read: It contains a good analysis of the few statistics we have available, mostly from China, making allowance to the fact that many figures, like death rates, cannot be computed precisely yet so wide range estimates.

Useful reminders as to why social isolation, and doing it early, is so crucial for the rate of spreading, the strain on the health care facilities and ultimately the death count. There are useful statistics for the "Spanish flu" of 1917-1918.

Living in the Paris area, I'm on remote work for a number of days now - not everyone can afford that.

Oh, and another point discussed there: the virus may have spread first in Italy, than Spain, France and Germany! this could be due to the fact they are favorite tourist destinations, including tourists from China (whereas the Salisbury cathedral and its famous spire is favored by Russian tourists - well know fact). But it's only a matter of time, one to two weeks, before other European countries reach the same situation, including the British isles: only strict social isolation and quarantine can slow the spreading now.

by Bernard (bernard) on Fri Mar 13th, 2020 at 07:33:25 PM EST
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