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The Corona Crisis gets real | 89 comments (89 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
"Flattening the Curve" (none / 0)
(Trying the old school html tagging again. You may wish to wear protective goggles.)

>"Flattening the Curve" is a deadly delusion

The "flattening the curve" idea suggests that if we wash our hands and stay at home while being sick aggressively enough, we won't have to stop the virus from becoming endemic and infecting 40% to 70% of all people, but we can slow the spread of the infection so much that out medical system can deal with the case load.
[...]
Dampening the infection rate of COVID-19 to a level that is compatible with our medical system means that we would have to spread the epidemic over more than a decade!

And at least this writer is honest:

My curves are not correct!

My back-of-the-envelope calculation is not a proper simulation, or a good model of what's going on either. Don't cite it as such! In reality, the spread of a disease does not follow a normal distribution.

by Number 6 on Sat Mar 14th, 2020 at 07:30:32 PM EST
Re: "Flattening the Curve" (none / 0)
Link doesn't work


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Mar 14th, 2020 at 08:26:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: "Flattening the Curve" (none / 1)
Corrected Link for Flattening the Curve

There's a bit of incorrect html on the end of the original [the <Br or %3CBr if you paste it into the address bar. ]

by oldremainmer48 on Sun Mar 15th, 2020 at 12:28:24 AM EST
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Re: "Flattening the Curve" (none / 0)
The "herd immunity" neologism (read: socially acceptable endemic disease) has never made an sense to me. Narrative and computational biology versions of that "theory" have cropped up from time to time in MSM as if such as public health policy were tried and true, "experienced based," according to modern coin with/without hand-held DATA VISUALIZATION tech. m'k. Sure. Until one gives a moment to historical account or attempts a count of eradicated virus. All I've got is small pox, and that washed out over n generations of ahh seminal innoculation regimes. Raise your finger if you have a scar. Or your gov DoD preserve samples.

Truth is, people simply are not, may never be, sufficiently organized to test theory definitively. Free-range, liberal, etc. As important, European intellectual history abhors AUTHORITARIAN CIVIL indoctrination except religious instruction. So. Medieval medicine. Roll eyes.

by Cat on Sat Mar 14th, 2020 at 09:35:39 PM EST
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Re: "Flattening the Curve" (none / 1)
"Herd Immunity": A Rough Guide

ABSTRACT

The term "herd immunity" is widely used but carries a variety of meanings [1-7]. Some authors use it to describe the proportion immune among individuals in a population. Others use it with reference to a particular threshold proportion of immune individuals that should lead to a decline in incidence of infection. Still others use it to refer to a pattern of immunity that should protect a population from invasion of a new infection. A common implication of the term is that the risk of infection among susceptible individuals in a population is reduced by the presence and proximity of immune individuals (this is sometimes referred to as "indirect protection" or a "herd effect"). We provide brief historical, epidemiologic, theoretical, and pragmatic public health perspectives on this concept.




She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Mar 15th, 2020 at 02:04:06 AM EST
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The Corona Crisis gets real | 89 comments (89 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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