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The Corona Crisis gets real | 89 comments (89 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: The Corona Crisis gets real (none / 1)
The government here is getting some things right:
  1. Early decision to close schools, colleges, mass gatherings, and encourage remote working
  2. Social distancing, contingency plans to increase HSE capacity, hiring more healthcare staff
  3. €3.1 Billion emergency package for self-isolation sick pay, healthcare, support for SMEs etc.
  4. Good communications to encourage voluntary compliance backed up later by legislative provisions if required.
  5. Not relying on "herd immunity" to halt the outbreak - which implies tolerating c. 85,000 premature deaths. The longer we can delay infection peak, the greater chance that a) health services can provide better care, b) summer weather may reduce viral life, c) vaccine created resulting in a much lower death/misery count.
Where it is doing less well is with the speed and scale of the required response - the suspicion is that it will be slow and bureaucratic. What is needed now is:
  1. Tax and loan repayment holidays for SMEs (without interest penalties)
  2. Mortgage holidays and rent freezes, reduced utility charges
  3. Cheap credit for distressed businesses
  4. Health/temperature screening of incoming passengers
All this is possible because we have budget surpluses and the government can borrow at near zero interest rates - far cheaper than individuals or SME's can. The cost of failed businesses is far greater than the cost of tiding them over.

"Helicopter money" is an option, but a more targeted approach to people effected most by covid-19 and others who need it most will probably be more effective and have greater public support. Also it seems the ECB/Lagarde/Germans will probably block helicopter money. Where is Draghi when you need him? Time for Philip Lane (ECB Head Economist) to step up.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Mar 15th, 2020 at 05:01:16 PM EST
Re: The Corona Crisis gets real (none / 1)
The deaths will be horrific for everyone affected, but will pass. The economic effects will affect everyone regardless, and last much longer.

Considering the fragility of the markets and the huge debt burden, we may well be on our way to a full-blown depression.

The only way to prevent that will be to take the measures you're suggesting. Mortgage, rent, and tax payment holidays will keep businesses alive and individuals out of bankruptcy.

Otherwise it's going to be financial carnage, with a fair percentage of the working population bankrupted and homeless.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Mar 15th, 2020 at 05:59:47 PM EST
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Re: The Corona Crisis gets real (none / 1)
Escalations today include:
  1. Closure of all pubs and hotel bars. Restaurants to practice "social distancing"
  2. Request by government to employers of 50,000 workers laid off by above measure to keep paying them at least the minimum social welfare rate (c. €203 per week) immediately and the government will reimburse asap.
  3. It is estimated that a total of 110,000 workers have been laid off so far. The government has announced simplified procedures for applying for unemployment benefits that avoid a need for physical presence and queueing at social welfare offices.


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 10:06:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The Corona Crisis gets real | 89 comments (89 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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