Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
The theoretical science behind policy of western politicians is simply: don't do the tests and don't count. The politicians have lost weeks by fooling themselves as calling it a flu influenza.

Our leaders believe in "herd immunity" thereby offering the elderly as victims during the first wave of the virus. The summer months will see the outbreak subside. In next fall and winter season a second wave will hit once again, the communal immunity will limit the speed of the coronavirus spreading.

There are many reasons for the elderly and persons with underlying serious illness to isolate themselves from society ... social separation to perfection. Yes, serving self-interest for the coming months. It's not all gloom, however a virus pandemic is a bit more than uncomfort.

Stay well, prepare and for worst case scenario organize social support with contamination precautions in place.

What the experts tell us, the ones I listen to, when the government don't do the tests, the spread of the virus is uncertain. The true numbers are multiple -- sometimes a tenfold -- of what the CDC and here locally the RIVM publish.

The greatest harm is to the first responders, doctors, nurses and the many volunteers.

After a poor start, China did a lot to catch up and now are in control. South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore have done well.

by Oui on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 04:26:17 AM EST
I know a few people who are super-networkers with four figure Facebook friend lists.

Based on some very noisy sampling, a ballpark estimate suggests around 100,000 symptomatic cases of CV in the UK already. If some people are asymptomatic, the number could be some multiple of that.

No UK deaths on those networks, but one in Italy.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 10:19:32 AM EST
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I think your use of the term "herd immunity" is off.
by asdf on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 10:37:39 PM EST
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Conservative theoretici shaping society

See definitions in my posts:

Disease modelling by Graham Medley, advisor to BoJo

Yesterdays briefing to the nation by PM Mark Rutte:

Building group immunity in a controlled way

Herd immunity should be part of a large scale immunization program to eradicate a disease, not by the hand of three gods in politics ...

"Herd Immunity" -- A Rough Guide

Britain must change course - and resume Covid-19 testing to protect frontline NHS staff | The Guardian |

by Oui on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 08:10:15 AM EST
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