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The 1.63 figure represents the doubling time, I presume, which is shorter in Colorado than in the nation, which is more like 2.1. (I rounded down to 2 for simplicity of presentation. Two things come to mind that might affect this number: social distancing and the number of loci of infection. I used a lumped analysis for simplicity, but a more accurate approach would be to use aggregated analysis of individual loci of infection. I see no reason why the doubling time should be identical in any of the separate loci. And the figures could be all over the place.

For instance, let us presume that one major loci was a ski resort. Social distance might be very low and a lot of people could quickly be infected. Most of these people might leave the resort before the first case is confirmed there, especially with this being in the USA. Now some of the unsymptomatic infected might leave the resort and some of those might go back to a college town, where many more people could be exposed before the first infection is confirmed. That new locus would likely have a low doubling number and a high number of infected individuals.

But others exposed at the ski resort might go back to a remote farm or ranch where there are only a handful of potential targets, thus limiting the scope of that locus. Still others might leave the state, carrying the infection to different states. They would not be counted in the state statistics if they were not detected before they left.

The daily number of infected people shown in the Wiki graph I used would indicate that the national rate of doubling is a bit longer than it could be based on the Colorado number. But the USA is so woefully behind in testing that it is hard to draw any solid conclusions. I heard tonight that the Governor of Connecticut has twenty nurses from ONE hospital in his state that are home on self isolation because of possible exposure, where they have to remain because he cannot get them tested so that those not infected could return to work.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 01:43:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually the 1.63 is the daily increase ratio. The doubling time is 1.42 days.

We are up to 160 since yesterday, and 131 * 1.63 = 213 so it is sort of noisy, as would be expected. Also there was a change in counting; they are no longer requiring the tests to go to the CDC for verification. That might skew things a bit.

Our official site, for your amusement. Probably not much different from anybody else. Although a big chunk of Silicon Valley in California is in household lockdown, which we are not up to yet.

Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment

by asdf on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 03:25:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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