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" In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US. "

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by asdf on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 10:54:09 PM EST
These are numbers that prompted Johnson and Trump to quietly change their approach. But a lot of time has been wasted. At this rate, we'll have to seal off the Channel tunnel...
by Bernard on Wed Mar 18th, 2020 at 06:13:02 PM EST
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Clearly, relatively few patients will be treated in both countries. A vaccine is some way away - if it's possible at all - so the only hope for most people is going to be successful testing and crash approval of the handful of various treatments that are being trialled.

Chloroquine seems to be cheap, generic, and fairly effective. More exotic - and expensive - antivirals are also being tested.

If none of the above happen in time the UK's death rate will be on the order of Italy's. Assuming an 80% infection rate and 3% mortality (which is less than the 7% in Italy) there would be around 1.5 million deaths.

A 7% mortality rate would mean 3.5 million dead in the UK - which would be equivalent to dropping a nuke on one of the UK's larger cities.

It probably won't get that bad, but given the UK's inspired leadership I suspect high six figures may be in the ball park.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Mar 18th, 2020 at 07:54:43 PM EST
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