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Experts here are expecting the Irish numbers to double every 2/3 days until the effects of the social isolation measures kick in.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 05:29:00 PM EST
Well, yes, that's how it works. About a week, I guess, with what, 20 deaths expected?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 05:45:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In France, the numbers are doubling every 72h/ 3 days as well. The Macron government just announced a complete lockdown "Spanish style" (or Italian style?), but any effect on the numbers shouldn't be visible until 10 days at least, most likely three weeks.
by Bernard on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 09:28:38 PM EST
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At the moment our hospital system is still working within capacity and so the deaths might remain low for longer. The two who died were in their 80's with pre-existing conditions (one terminal) and may not have had much longer to go anyway.

However more and more hospital staff are testing positive and we may end up without enough hospital staff sooner rather than later. My daughter works in St. James' Hospital (largest one in Ireland) and expects to get it sooner rather than later (close colleagues already down). She has sent fiance to his parents house and has totally self isolated.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 07:42:40 PM EST
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According to an article by Al Jazera as of March 16 Ireland had 169 cases. Has anyone seen a list of total cases identified by date? The population of Ireland is less than 5 million. At a 48hr or two day doubling time the total number infected would be 2,768,896 on April 13. At that point the model would start to break down. Also unknown is the effect that social isolation numbers will have in Ireland.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 02:12:11 AM EST
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All the data you need is here. Leo Varadker is forecasting 15,000 cases by the end of March.

For global data see here

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 03:34:56 PM EST
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The US numbers are worthless.  Very limited supply of test kits means very limited testing meaning very limited data on the scale of the problem.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 06:51:41 PM EST
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Presumably the real numbers will start appearing in the deaths column, if they do honest postmortems , that is.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 07:36:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FLORIDA oncologist treated my dad (81) for atypical prostate cells. No tumor present. He got forty (40) consecutive days radiation exposure. 60 days later WBC ->0. Prescribed weekly transfusions to treat acquired AML, pro-forma assignment to bone marrow transplant, Medicare billing hours "medical team" BALLOONS. Dies 8 months later.

Cause of Death printed on certificate?
"failure to thrive"

by Cat on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 07:57:59 PM EST
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I hated too give your post an 'excellent', but there is no alternative. When did your dad die? I had prostate cancer diagnosed in 2000 and tried hormone therapy to shrink the prostate prior to planned 'brachiotherapy', but the prostate did not shrink sufficiently and I elected to go with radical  prostatectomy. I had three data points that I could connect to an exponential curve.

A few years later my younger brother had a similar problem but different recommendations. He waited longer and found that, though the PSA rose to twice what had triggered my decision, it later declined and then bounced around.

Between my case and his urologists had learned a bit about the progression. But, if the cancer metastasizes it often goes to bone and can lead to a very painful death. My doctor was with Kaiser, and they are large enough to have their own statistical analysis. I don't fault them. It was just a hard call at the time.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Mar 18th, 2020 at 09:30:10 PM EST
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2012, about 2 years before the Brachytherapy "best practice" fad faded.
by Cat on Thu Mar 19th, 2020 at 02:24:42 AM EST
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