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The probability of new cases is indirectly related to indiscriminate quarantine enforcement. The greater HH "locked down" and (confirmed, suspect) patients' compliance, the fewer contacts to trace. Physical quarantine of all suspected cases (∞) is the limiting factor of "new case" growth. And ultimately, depletion of finite medical care and equipment resources available to acute cases.

chc.cn | Update on the epidemic situation of new coronavirus pneumonia as of 24:00 on March 21

A total of 687,680 close contacts were traced, and 1,071 close contacts were still in medical observation.
Doubtless Wuhan artifacts in the total. But China still hasn't stopped daily tracking and health surveillance of "suspect" contacts.

archived Sun Feb 9th, 2020 at 03:09:27 AM EST, A/V segment

by Cat on Sun Mar 22nd, 2020 at 07:05:19 PM EST
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