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Germany has half the fatalities of Holland and 6 times as many confirmed cases. Either the German health care system is 12 times better or Holland has 12 times more cases than it knows about. That means that 11/12th. of their cases could be spreading further infections without realising it. When you're in a Rutte, start testing!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Mar 22nd, 2020 at 03:07:31 PM EST
How about PM Rutte deserving 12 Pinocchio's 🙃😟

Most important ... Merkel's Germany does the testing following WHO instructions ... Rutte, BoJo and Trump are of the Conservative Church of my #science and NO TESTING but the bare minimum. Blaming outside forces for the unfortunate "acceleration" of number of deaths ... see elliptical curve upwards.

by Oui on Sun Mar 22nd, 2020 at 04:33:08 PM EST
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Add France to the list of "low testing rate" countries: about 4000 per day vs. over 20000 in Germany. Only people being hospitalized with symptoms (and health care personnel) is systematically tested. People with mild symptoms are asked to self-quarantine at home and take paracetamol.

Official justification is that now that the virus is officially spreading nationwide, there's no longer a point in systematic testing -  the WHO begs to differ. French Health minister acknowledged that the real number of infected people is much higher that the 15000 counted as of Saturday night, "somewhere between 30000 and 90000" he estimated.

by Bernard on Sun Mar 22nd, 2020 at 05:18:09 PM EST
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The real point of testing mild cases is to do contact tracing, but that becomes exponentially more difficult the greater the number of infections, so perhaps the opportunity to that has passed.  Nevertheless, it was an opportunity missed at an earlier stage of the pandemic. It also rather assumes that people with mild symptoms will effectively self isolate - which they may not do if they think it's just a cold...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Mar 22nd, 2020 at 05:35:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The probability of new cases is indirectly related to indiscriminate quarantine enforcement. The greater HH "locked down" and (confirmed, suspect) patients' compliance, the fewer contacts to trace. Physical quarantine of all suspected cases (∞) is the limiting factor of "new case" growth. And ultimately, depletion of finite medical care and equipment resources available to acute cases.

chc.cn | Update on the epidemic situation of new coronavirus pneumonia as of 24:00 on March 21

A total of 687,680 close contacts were traced, and 1,071 close contacts were still in medical observation.
Doubtless Wuhan artifacts in the total. But China still hasn't stopped daily tracking and health surveillance of "suspect" contacts.

archived Sun Feb 9th, 2020 at 03:09:27 AM EST, A/V segment

by Cat on Sun Mar 22nd, 2020 at 07:05:19 PM EST
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According to more recent sources, the number of daily tests in France is now closer to 8000 and there's a plan to ramp them up, particularly once the mass confinement is eventually lifted, in... a number of weeks from now.
by Bernard on Sun Mar 22nd, 2020 at 07:41:47 PM EST
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He's out by an order of magnitude, I suspect.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 22nd, 2020 at 07:06:48 PM EST
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The thing about there being no point in testing is a cover story -- the truth is that they had very few testing kits available, so had no choice. An official lie in order to forestall panic, I suppose.

They are ramping up testing quite fast in France now that the tests are available in greater numbers.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Mar 23rd, 2020 at 11:18:32 AM EST
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Same for the decision to go ahead with the first round of local elections, only to hastily cancel the second round sine die. Decisions are taken at the last minute with little anticipation, because until recently, the priority was the health of the economy over the health of the public. Neoliberalism in action.

The Chinese leadership may be taking a similar gamble:

Life after lockdown: has China really beaten coronavirus?

Others say it is a balancing act for the leadership. Since the beginning of this month, leaders in Beijing, including Xi, have emphasised the need to meet economic and development targets, in a year where the Chinese economy was already expected to struggle. A taskforce has been touring the country to make sure local authorities, bound by competing demands of restarting production but preventing new infections, are following orders.

"Now the leadership has put a very heavy emphasis on resuming economic activity," said Victor Shih, a politics professor at the University of California, San Diego.

"One way to resume economic activity without panic is to cover up cases while still doing the government's best to trace and contain them," he said. "There is a risk it will lead to another outbreak but for now that seems like a risk the government is willing to take."

by Bernard on Mon Mar 23rd, 2020 at 07:09:59 PM EST
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Dutch coronavirus death toll rises to 179, most deaths outside intensive care
There are 1,150 intensive care beds in the Netherlands, of which around half are being kept free for coronavirus patients.
Convoys of patients are also being moved to other hospitals around the country. `This situation can last for months and the number of patients could be so great that we won't have enough IC personnel,' Farid Adbo, a specialist at the Radboud university teaching hospital in Nijmegen told broadcaster NOS.
More than 80% of Dutch coronavirus patients are being treated at home, and of those who are admitted to hospital, 20% to 30% end up in intensive care, Adbo said.
by Cat on Sun Mar 22nd, 2020 at 10:58:21 PM EST
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