Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
There's huge confusion between CFR, Infection Fatality Rate, and Population Mortality.

CFR - deaths/known cases
IFR - deaths/estimated infections
PM - deaths as an absolute percentage of the population

You can't estimate the IFR accurately without statistically significant random population sampling. No country has done this, although Germany may have come closest. (Korea's sampling was skewed by explicit tracking of one subgroup.)

All of the above depend on the quality and availability of health care. There's no formal measure for Base Mortality, which is what you'd get if you exposed a large population and didn't provide any health care at all. That would be a population worst case, and for obvious reasons no one does this - although in fact it would still depend on basic health, social customs, and so on.

Allowing for 80% infection, which is an epidemiological worst case (likely true in the UK, not so much in countries with good early lockdown, plentiful testing, and case tracking) according to one estimate the likely population mortality will be around 0.15%.

Case Fatality Rates

Although the horror stories are getting the most attention, the reality is that around 70% of cases are either asymptomatic or mild.

But the others are bad news, because the remaining numbers will still overwhelm most health care systems - even the well prepared ones. And with asymptomatic transmission, the total number of infections will be higher than it would have been otherwise.

Putting all of that together with some guessing, the final death toll in the UK will likely be in the low six figures, or high five figures if the country is very lucky.

That's better than seven figure estimates you get by naively applying CFR to the entire population. But it's still going to be a life-changing outbreak for a lot of people, one way or another.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Mar 24th, 2020 at 01:57:49 PM EST
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