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In Ireland the hospitalisation rate is 26% of confirmed test patients. If 20% of those were to die that would imply a 5.2% case mortality rate. In Ireland the case mortality rate is currently 0.58%, implying the Tilbourg hospital has a ten times worse case mortality rate. However this is no worse than the overall average Dutch case mortality rate of 5.55%.

Assuming the Irish and Dutch health care systems are broadly equivalent, this ten fold disparity in case mortality rates could be due to a number of factors:

  1. Greater testing in Ireland - resulting in a higher denominator of cases confirmed relative to the virus' real spread in the community.
  2. Ireland being at an earlier stage in the pandemic - and thus the disease has run its course in less cases
  3. Lower average age profile of all cases in Ireland - median age in Ireland is 45 - I don't know what it is in Holland.
  4. The hospital system in Tilburg has been overwhelmed by a concentration of severe cases, and is no longer able to provide optimum life saving care.

Germany is the other comparator to Holland with a tenfold lower case mortality rate. I'm not sure this makes the overall handling of the pandemic in Holland look good. Whether you want to apportion blame to Rutte or to other factors, I leave to you guys to debate.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Mar 26th, 2020 at 12:45:20 PM EST
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