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One figure that has puzzled me since MSM first publicized it is, US influenza CFR is 0.1%. This figure is patently false. My question therefore was terms of the expression which produced it.

I suspected the error is the selected value of the denominator. I have shown here that the estimated frequency produced by CDC FluView modeling derives from deaths/hospitalization--ergo diagnosed, or "confirmed", cases, given numerous limitations in data collection, admitted by CDC.

Indeed, in review of numerous, spurious expositions published by innerboob amateur exposition, TOTAL POPULATION SIZE is the choice CFR denominator. This is stupidity beyond the pale of rudimentary principles of statistical description. And a problem in itself that cannot be remedied by quantities of money or PPE hastily delivered to everyone on the planet.

by Cat on Mon Mar 23rd, 2020 at 04:22:16 PM EST

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