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I'm sure those are all variables in the epidemiological models used by Imperial College and others to estimate the outcomes of various scenarios - which led the UK government to do a swift about turn (at least officially) on their "herd immunity strategy". I don't know if they have published the parameters of their model or made it available to other researchers.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Mar 23rd, 2020 at 05:55:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
equivalent US and UK total estimated population size

All the numbers are ratios, [any case] incidence per 100,000. That is, the authors' modeling has no factual basis of measurement--time, area, family size, business size x occup'n, school class x grade, contact duration, recover duration, etc-- occurring in the target population any or each level of "sample" analysis.

They transpose recorded frequencies from Wuhan as if these cultural norms were equivalent.

This crude dressing down medical srvc utilization to zero ("peak") for an "NPI" policy recco. whatevs. I bet they animate the curves for Boris.

But here's a particularly wild claim, citing MedRix.org (wtf) not peer-reviewed data sources, which definitively impugns merits of the study.

Analyses of data from China as well as data from those returning on repatriation flights suggest that 40-50% of infections were not identified as cases 12. This may include asymptomatic infections, mild disease and a level of under-ascertainment. We therefore assume that two-thirds of cases are sufficiently symptomatic to self-isolate (if required by policy) within 1 day of symptom onset, and a mean  delay from onset of symptoms to hospitalisation of 5days. The age-stratified proportion of infections that require hospitalisation and the infection fatality ratio(IFR) were obtained from an analysis of  a subset of cases from China 12.

by Cat on Mon Mar 23rd, 2020 at 11:02:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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