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Comparing different approaches to Covid-19 containment | 56 comments (56 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: Comparing different approaches to Covid-19 (4.00 / 2)
My first reaction would be there is no level playing field of reliable number of deaths.

The Netherlands only registers in RIVM Stats the deaths in hospitals of patients tested. The true numbers is nearly 60% higher. Same is for England which sees huge number of deaths unregistered in homes and nursery homes. Both the UK and US are 2-3 weeks yet to go in spread of the virus and number of deaths.

The Republic of Iran has listed a very unreliable number. Where is the listing of China? What is their number of deaths per 1M?

The early explosion of clusters developed due to sporting events: football matches, carnaval, church gatherings, wintersport in ski resorts of the rich and more fortunate. Watching a report from Saaremaa, an Island off the coast of Estonia ... overwhelmed by extreme number of cases ... started by the volleyball matches with Italian teams further expanded by a social gathering.

Best performance by nations dependent on early detection, health structure where testing could be rolled out and where the leadership set policy not on short term economic principle, but the importance to save lives foremost. Tackle the pandemic to block its ravaging through communities and a centralized and coordinated approach.

I have mainly focused on The Netherlands with Mark Rutte and became aware early on of close ties to the Conservatives of Boris Johnson and by extension with the America of Trump.

In yesterday's press meeting in The Hague, PM Mark Rutte has done a 180 degree turn-around ... saving lives at all cost, also of the citizens above 65 years of age. The lockdown of the economy is set to continue until the risk of outbreak has diminished further. His approach of herd immunity on March 16 is only 6,000 lives ago. Tears!

Amnesia and Gaza Genocide

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2020 at 06:20:34 AM EST
Psychology: Inflating Number Expected Deaths (none / 1)
See my earlier post where I extrapolated some numbers for number of expected deaths in the UK (13,400) and the US (70,000).

The Tory government 🇬🇧 are far above and beyond ... a best performance 😡
And Trump in America does his very best to extend the spread of the outbreak, so we won't see the final numbers until early November 2020 🤡 🇺🇸

Amnesia and Gaza Genocide

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2020 at 06:52:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Testing per capita (none / 1)
Ranking by best performance:
Iceland, Faeroe Islands, Falkland Islands, United Arab Emirates, Malta, Gibraltar, Luxembourg, Bahrain, San Marino ... all above 50K per 1M.

The UK at 8K, The Netherlands at 10K and the US at 13K are lagging far behind. Shameful.

[Data Worldometer]

Amnesia and Gaza Genocide

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2020 at 07:11:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Testing per capita (4.00 / 4)
The ONS stats show an 8,000 extra "allegedly unexplained" deaths over the usual average for the week ending 10th April - which makes a running total of around 15,000 deaths by the end of that week, which again is about half the number of official in-hospital tested NHS deaths.

So the total by that death is already around 30k. And the number of "unexplained" deaths has been slightly-more-than-doubling each week.

If that continues there will be an extra 16,000 "unexplained" deaths by April 17th, putting the total over 60k.

The ONS are investigating the discrepancy, but apparently the inquiry could take... years. Because it includes some people who would normally go to a doctor/hospital but didn't.

I would guess that's not a very big number compared to "unexplained" Covid deaths, but I'm not working for the ONS.

The FT is a little more generous: Coronavirus death toll in UK twice as high as official figure

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2020 at 10:25:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Testing per capita (none / 1)
An argument here is that deaths from other causes are being improperly grouped with coronavirus deaths. That is hard to untangle in the short term.

The proof will be in the total death rate for 2020 compared to 2019.

by asdf on Sun Apr 26th, 2020 at 12:43:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
most ignorant, litigious nation on planet REPORTS (none / 1)
One in 3 death certificates were wrong before coronavirus. It's about to get even worse.
Up to 1 in 3 death certificates nationwide were already wrong before COVID-19, said Bob Anderson, chief of the mortality statistics branch at the National Center for Health Statistics in an interview with the USA TODAY Network.

"I'm always worried about getting good data. I think this sort of thing can be an issue even in a pandemic," Anderson said.

Experts say the inaccuracies are part and parcel of a patchwork, state-by-state system of medical examiners, coroners and doctors who have disparate medical backgrounds, and in some cases none at all.
[...]
A 2017 review of Missouri hospitals, for example, found nearly half of death certificates listed an incorrect cause of death. A Vermont study found 51% of death certificates had major errors. Nearly half of the physicians the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveyed in 2010 admitted that they knowingly reported an inaccurate cause of death.
[...]
Despite this, Anderson said, some physicians will simply list the cause of death as pneumonia when the pneumonia likely came after a COVID-19 infection. But he hopes fewer do.

archived
FluView | Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality Surveillance from the National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System
"failure to thrive"
Classification and Its Consequences
by Cat on Sun Apr 26th, 2020 at 01:29:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Testing per capita (none / 1)
The ONS-stats are all-cause. There are separate break-outs for causes, demographics, and so on, but that's not the point here - which is that all-cause deaths were 80% higher compared to a five-year average in the most recent week of available data.

So it would be astounding if the final death toll for the year wasn't significantly higher than average. Even if some people shuffle off a few months early, most will be dying some number of years before they would usually.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Apr 26th, 2020 at 07:20:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Statistical probabilities don't have names ... (none / 0)
Yes but they do tend to net off deaths that would have happened at some stage in the year anyway against actual Covid-19 deaths as measured by actual diagnosis in widespread community testing regimes. Some of the latter  might have died anyway from co-morbidities or age, but it doesn't mean they can be subtracted from Covid-19 stats or that ONS data is directly comparable to actual Covid-19 stats.

Ireland has recently added non-confirmed but probable covid-19 deaths to its Covid stats - in line with international disease diagnostic conventions which has increased its Covid deaths by another 20% on top of its confirmed numbers. With a median age of 83 and with the vast majority having underlying conditions, may of these would not be regarded as "excess morbidity" in ONS type statistical exercises.

In the US deaths are often just recorded as respiratory failure or pneumonia related and not counted in Covid-19 stats unless confirmed by tests, and there are reports of doctors being pressurised not to note Covid on death certs. So there seems to be a concerted effort in US and UK to minimise the pandemic impact probably largely for political and PR reasons.

Some dry statistical report on "excess morbidity" won't have the same impact when released in a years time. Statistical probabilities don't have names and faces and families...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Apr 26th, 2020 at 08:16:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The politicisation of death (4.00 / 3)
Yes the systematic undercounting of deaths by the inclusion only of hospital deaths in the headline figures has been one of the big scandals of this crisis and I have been amazed at the supine way in which the mass media have continued to report UK data as in any way comparable to any other.

This has gone long past the stage of initial teething problems in data collation and appears to be a deliberate PR strategy to make the UK performance look less bad than it actually is. Right wing sources have also tried to confuse the issue by comparing with deaths that would/might have occurred due to seasonal flu or other factors in any case as if this mitigated the extent of the public health failure.

Other right wing sources have sought to confuse the issue by referring to the age and number of underlying conditions of the deceased as if having a co-morbidity was a disqualifying factor for being considered a Covid-19 fatality.

At least some countries, such as France, have sought to remedy the initial exclusion of non-hospital based deaths by including them in more recent daily totals. It is extraordinary in this day and age of online data collection that we may never know the true death toll in some allegedly advanced societies with comprehensive health care systems such as the UK.

I know there have been various data collection issues in other countries as well some of which can be attributed to regional authorities simply being overwhelmed by the scale of the disaster in their areas. It is understandable that data collection is not a primary concern when you are struggling to deal with the afflicted.

But the politicisation of death, the fact that for some people deaths matter less if they are among the aged, otherwise ill, otherwise marginalised communities, and outside the formal hospital system, and thus more hidden or deniable is the scandal of the age.

We see it in the anti-lockdown protests in the US and Brazil, supported by their Presidents which place the economic interests of the majority above the lives of minorities.

In Ireland, too, a couple of headbanger right-wing journalists, who have received less than 1% of the vote whenever they have stod for election, have brought a legal challenge against the constitutionality of emergency legislation unanimously passed by parliament on the grounds that it infringes their unalienable right to infect others.

Crises bring out the best in people, but they also bring out the very worst.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2020 at 11:02:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The politicisation of death (4.00 / 3)
Pushed by media reports about increasing death tolls in nursing homes around the country, the French government has been providing two mortality figures during its daily briefing for the past two weeks now: deaths in hospitals and deaths in nursing homes.

As of tonight, April 22, the figures are:

  • Deaths in hospitals: 13,236 (+336 in the last 24 hours)
  • Deaths in nursing homes: 8,104 (+208 in the last 24 hours)

A total of 21,340 deaths attributed to COVID-19.

Today's fatalities number for the UK is: 18,100 (+759), but these are only the deaths in NHS hospitals; nursing homes deaths are still not tallied.

In international comparisons, France is always shown ahead of the UK because of the higher "total" figures. However, counting only the hospital deaths in the UK is skewing the comparison as you point out: by that figure (deaths in hospitals) the UK has been well ahead of France for over a week now.

The other extreme is Belgium where just about any death that can be attributed to C-19 is counted, which gives the country one of the highest rates of deaths per million of total population.

As you pointed out, counting, undercounting, not counting, all these follow different political motives; mostly trying to hide the lack of preparation and slow responses under the carpet.

by Bernard (bernard) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2020 at 08:32:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The politicisation of death (none / 1)
That's why I keep posting the ONS stats, because they're far more likely to be reliable. Although they're still underreporting the true picture, because they don't include figures for Scotland or Ni.

At a minimum the UK is well over 30,000 deaths by now, and the true total could easily be twice that - which puts it second only to the US, with around a fifth of the population.

Scandal doesn't begin to cover it. But here we are - with a far-right political culture that thinks PR, flag-waving bullshit, and impression management are the hallmarks of effective government.

As long as they're in place practical details will look after themselves. And if they don't it doesn't matter - as long as you control the narrative.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Apr 23rd, 2020 at 12:21:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
COVID-19 Deaths: Belgium Worst, Dutch 2nd (none / 1)
My calculation from the CBS - Dutch National Statistics 2020 compared to avg. of two previous years:

Deaths per 1M Pop.

Belgium    665
Holland    535
Spain      531
Italy      467
UK         405
France     377
Sweden     263
Ireland    256
USA        196
Germany     79

These numbers make more sense, UK and USA catching up.

Amnesia and Gaza Genocide

by Oui (Oui) on Fri May 1st, 2020 at 07:01:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: COVID-19 Deaths: Belgium Worst, Dutch 2nd (none / 1)
Lessons from the past: Familial aggregation analysis of fatal pandemic influenza (Spanish flu) in Iceland in 1918

Iceland and COVID-19 Response

Amnesia and Gaza Genocide

by Oui (Oui) on Fri May 1st, 2020 at 07:34:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: COVID-19 Deaths: Belgium Worst, Dutch 2nd (none / 1)
Why can't every country produce decent statistics well present like Iceland?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat May 2nd, 2020 at 08:47:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: COVID-19 Deaths: Belgium Worst, Dutch 2nd (none / 0)
Because the politicians do not want decent information.  It would seriously impair their value to the 1%.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed May 6th, 2020 at 02:47:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Comparing different approaches to Covid-19 containment | 56 comments (56 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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