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Dr GRAHAM GUDGIN's  letter, (Covid-19 - one island with very different death rates?, Letters, April 24), is a masterpiece of obfuscation.

He breezily dismisses Prof Mike Tomlinson (Opinion & Analysis, April 22nd) comparison of Hospital Covid-19 deaths, north and south, on the grounds that "this means little since we do not know how many people are moved into hospital from care homes or the wider community in each jurisdiction."

But we know precisely how many people with confirmed Covid-19 have been hospitalised in each jurisdiction. A the time of writing, this is 2,424 in the south, of which 392 sadly died. The corresponding figures for N. Ireland are 3,454 hospitalized of which 2,765 have been discharged, and 263 have died (Source: PHA and N. Ireland Department of Health).

Adjusting these figures for population size, this results in a rate of 80 deaths per million in the south, and 140 deaths per million in the Northern Ireland.

The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) has has also reported the TOTAL number of deaths  in Northern Ireland involving Covid-19 up until April 17, as  276 deaths,  64 more than previously reported. The equivalent figure for Ireland on the 17th. April was 531. Again, adjusting for population size, this results in a figure of 108 deaths per million in Ireland, and 147 deaths per million in N. Ireland.

The lack of testing in the community in N. Ireland may also result in a considerable number of deaths there not being recorded as Covid-19 related. Dr GUDGIN refers to "excess mortality" statistics but these may be influenced by many factors - age profiles, seasonal flus or underlying morbidities. Irish Covid-19 fatality statistics are not adjusted downwards for those who might have died in any case due to age or underlying conditions over the period of this pandemic.

One of the scandals of the crisis so far has been the attempt by the UK government to pass off UK hospital deaths as comparable to all deaths in other jurisdictions. For instance France is always shown in international comparisons as having a higher total of deaths, 21,340 as of April 23rd. compared to 18,100 for the UK. But the French total is made up of  13,236 deaths in hospitals, and 8,104 deaths in nursing homes, whereas the UK total ignores deaths in nursing homes and in the community and included only deaths in hospitals. The true comparison is therefore 18,100 (UK) vs. 13,236 (France).

Every one of those numbers refers to a loved one lost to friends and family forever. It should not matter where they died. It should not be beyond the capability of a modern state and health care system to accurately test and account for all Covid deaths, wherever they occurred, and to report them transparently in the media. Dr GUDGIN's time would be better spent advising his former employer, the First Minister in Northern Ireland, on policies which can more effectively control the pandemic on the whole island of Ireland.



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Apr 24th, 2020 at 03:32:55 PM EST

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