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Comparing different approaches to Covid-19 containment | 56 comments (56 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: Testing per capita (none / 1)
An argument here is that deaths from other causes are being improperly grouped with coronavirus deaths. That is hard to untangle in the short term.

The proof will be in the total death rate for 2020 compared to 2019.

by asdf on Sun Apr 26th, 2020 at 12:43:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
most ignorant, litigious nation on planet REPORTS (none / 1)
One in 3 death certificates were wrong before coronavirus. It's about to get even worse.
Up to 1 in 3 death certificates nationwide were already wrong before COVID-19, said Bob Anderson, chief of the mortality statistics branch at the National Center for Health Statistics in an interview with the USA TODAY Network.

"I'm always worried about getting good data. I think this sort of thing can be an issue even in a pandemic," Anderson said.

Experts say the inaccuracies are part and parcel of a patchwork, state-by-state system of medical examiners, coroners and doctors who have disparate medical backgrounds, and in some cases none at all.
[...]
A 2017 review of Missouri hospitals, for example, found nearly half of death certificates listed an incorrect cause of death. A Vermont study found 51% of death certificates had major errors. Nearly half of the physicians the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveyed in 2010 admitted that they knowingly reported an inaccurate cause of death.
[...]
Despite this, Anderson said, some physicians will simply list the cause of death as pneumonia when the pneumonia likely came after a COVID-19 infection. But he hopes fewer do.

archived
FluView | Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality Surveillance from the National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System
"failure to thrive"
Classification and Its Consequences
by Cat on Sun Apr 26th, 2020 at 01:29:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Testing per capita (none / 1)
The ONS-stats are all-cause. There are separate break-outs for causes, demographics, and so on, but that's not the point here - which is that all-cause deaths were 80% higher compared to a five-year average in the most recent week of available data.

So it would be astounding if the final death toll for the year wasn't significantly higher than average. Even if some people shuffle off a few months early, most will be dying some number of years before they would usually.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Apr 26th, 2020 at 07:20:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Statistical probabilities don't have names ... (none / 0)
Yes but they do tend to net off deaths that would have happened at some stage in the year anyway against actual Covid-19 deaths as measured by actual diagnosis in widespread community testing regimes. Some of the latter  might have died anyway from co-morbidities or age, but it doesn't mean they can be subtracted from Covid-19 stats or that ONS data is directly comparable to actual Covid-19 stats.

Ireland has recently added non-confirmed but probable covid-19 deaths to its Covid stats - in line with international disease diagnostic conventions which has increased its Covid deaths by another 20% on top of its confirmed numbers. With a median age of 83 and with the vast majority having underlying conditions, may of these would not be regarded as "excess morbidity" in ONS type statistical exercises.

In the US deaths are often just recorded as respiratory failure or pneumonia related and not counted in Covid-19 stats unless confirmed by tests, and there are reports of doctors being pressurised not to note Covid on death certs. So there seems to be a concerted effort in US and UK to minimise the pandemic impact probably largely for political and PR reasons.

Some dry statistical report on "excess morbidity" won't have the same impact when released in a years time. Statistical probabilities don't have names and faces and families...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Apr 26th, 2020 at 08:16:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Comparing different approaches to Covid-19 containment | 56 comments (56 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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