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Comparing different approaches to Covid-19 containment | 56 comments (56 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: Testing per capita (none / 1)
The ONS-stats are all-cause. There are separate break-outs for causes, demographics, and so on, but that's not the point here - which is that all-cause deaths were 80% higher compared to a five-year average in the most recent week of available data.

So it would be astounding if the final death toll for the year wasn't significantly higher than average. Even if some people shuffle off a few months early, most will be dying some number of years before they would usually.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Apr 26th, 2020 at 07:20:04 PM EST
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Statistical probabilities don't have names ... (none / 0)
Yes but they do tend to net off deaths that would have happened at some stage in the year anyway against actual Covid-19 deaths as measured by actual diagnosis in widespread community testing regimes. Some of the latter  might have died anyway from co-morbidities or age, but it doesn't mean they can be subtracted from Covid-19 stats or that ONS data is directly comparable to actual Covid-19 stats.

Ireland has recently added non-confirmed but probable covid-19 deaths to its Covid stats - in line with international disease diagnostic conventions which has increased its Covid deaths by another 20% on top of its confirmed numbers. With a median age of 83 and with the vast majority having underlying conditions, may of these would not be regarded as "excess morbidity" in ONS type statistical exercises.

In the US deaths are often just recorded as respiratory failure or pneumonia related and not counted in Covid-19 stats unless confirmed by tests, and there are reports of doctors being pressurised not to note Covid on death certs. So there seems to be a concerted effort in US and UK to minimise the pandemic impact probably largely for political and PR reasons.

Some dry statistical report on "excess morbidity" won't have the same impact when released in a years time. Statistical probabilities don't have names and faces and families...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Apr 26th, 2020 at 08:16:47 PM EST
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Comparing different approaches to Covid-19 containment | 56 comments (56 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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