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"Then again, there is no way a small economy like Ireland could now borrow at near 0% if we had our own currency."

Not true. A government with a sovereign fiat currency can always set the lower bound of interest rate on the bonds it sells through the actions of its treasury and central banks. Granted the larger the economy of a country the more this is true. This is because the country can always create the money to pay interest or to redeem the bonds - however much this might offend the sensibilities of the more conservative.

Also, such a government can always purchase any good or service for sale in its state. Provided this ability is not used frivolously it will not produce inflation. It is only necessary that value be received for such purchases. This could, for instance, include housing projects financed by the state.

Sadly, these abilities are not available to the members of the EuroZone. But German courts have just declared war on the rest of the Eurozone.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed May 6th, 2020 at 04:24:59 AM EST
The EuroZone would work so much better without Germany.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed May 6th, 2020 at 04:25:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So why was I paying 14% interest on my mortgage in the 1980's? Why was the state paying exorbitant interest on its borrowings in foreign currencies when the (relative) value of those currencies was going up due to Punt devaluation?

It's quite different if you are the controller of the World's reserve currency - you can more or less do whatever you want. But a small economy, dependent on foreign investment and with large scale foreign borrowings subject to wild exchange rate swings and v. high interest rates is in a very different position.

You can print lots of money and "the markets" just devalue your currency by the corresponding amount. In practice any medium sized hedge fund can game the system and make huge profits at your expense. There is a reason why Ireland was so keen on ditching the Punt.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed May 6th, 2020 at 06:23:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am unable to comment on the situation in Ireland prior to the formation of the EuroZone because of ignorance. I do concede that a currency with small international weight is more vulnerable to manipulation via the FX markets.

If you enjoy the benefits of a sovereign fiat currency it is unwise to borrow in another currency, especially one in which you are NOT paid. We see this happen over and over. You open yourself to currency risk when you do so. Also, to  benefit from a sovereign fiat currency the country's monetary policy has to be run in ways that take advantage of those benefits. The tendency in the Anglo world has been to instead just pretend we are still on the gold standard.

Another big disadvantage of the Euro, especially for small countries, is that while there is one currency that all members USE, each country that is a member is responsible for their own banks and supervision. There is a bank that is responsible for managing the Euro, the ECB, but it is forbidden, at the insistence of Germany, to perform the primary task for which central banks exist - to protect the payment system. Instead, individual governments are responsible for the banks in their territories. But the governments cannot create Euros, so they cannot assure against default.

And then, if I recall correctly some of your posts from around 2008 and thereafter, there was more than the taint of corruption in some of the dealings between the Fianna Fail government and the banks and between Irish banks and foreign banks, especially German banks. So, when the crunch came the Irish state and its taxpayers DID in fact have to make good the losses of German banks - losses those banks were in the best position to have foreseen. Heaven forbid that German taxpayers should have to make good the losses incurred by German banks in foreign nations.

It is for outrages such as this that I cannot but see the EuroZone as anything but a giant control fraud run on behalf of Germany by the ECB and the EC.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu May 7th, 2020 at 02:11:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In fairness German, Danish, UK and other foreign banks did make big losses on their investments in Irish subsidiaries - chiefly those based in the IFSC - Irish financial services centre.

What was unconscionable was that the Irish Government, against much advice, chose to guarantee the bond holders in Irish banks in order to shore them up and thinking it was a relatively risk free guarantee that would never be called in. Some of the Irish banks - chiefly the Anglo-Irish Bank were also quite fraudulent in the way that they hid the true extent of their liabilities and continued trading while insolvent.

Had this been just a guarantee for Senior bondholders, a case might have been made there was some long term national interest being served, but the government extended the guarantee to junior bond-holders - who get a higher rate of return in in return for taking on a higher level of risk and who had no entitlement, and perhaps not even an expectation of getting such a guarantee.

Some reforms have been introduced since. There is now greater EZ level of supervision and responsibility for larger banks and the idea of taxpayers bailing out private banks has been "discredited". €60 Billion too late for Ireland I'm afraid... But at least Ireland now has a very high credit rating and an ability to source low cost finance on international markets.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu May 7th, 2020 at 10:37:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Then again, there is no way a small economy like Ireland could now borrow at near 0% if we had our own currency."

You can do so today because the ECB has set the interest rate near zero. Most large countries have done likewise. There is presently such a dearth of borrowers that most small countries could likely find investors willing to lend cheaply and denominate the loan in the local currency - provided there were reasonable prospects for repayment. They would simply buy instruments on the FX market to insure against currency fluctuations, which would add to the cost of the loan.

If you had your own currency you could also set the rate low unless you  were compelled by internal or balance of trade issues to attract foreign investment. But the purchases that a government with a sovereign fiat currency can make in its domestic economy ARE constrained by the availability of those resources in that country, be those resources labor or materials. So, if there is a shortage of lumber due  to deforestation, build with brick, stone or any import material that is available cheaply, provided you have exports the world wants.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu May 7th, 2020 at 02:30:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I found this on an MMT site. It is by a retired English Civil Engineer named Tom Griffiths:

A recent phone-in comment by LBC Radio's economics correspondent set me thinking, as it led to the usual nonsense over equating Govt. spending with 'debt'. There were phrases like "UK Govt is paying the salaries of 60% of Brits- even another month will bankrupt us" etc. I thought of a useful parallel which went on immensely longer, and yet the promised bankruptcy never arose.

Shortly after the declaration of war in 1939, Britain ramped itself up into practically the most single-focused economy ever seen in the modern world. Within 2 years, 6 million Brits were paid directly by HMG in the armed forces alone. That is, at least 25% of the adult population. On top of which, a huge percentage of the UK economy was switched to exclusively war materials output. Domestic car, bus and truck manufacturing stopped completely. As did train manufacture. Dockyards concentrated on war vessels or freighters which often had a very short life.

This continued until early 1946: in other words the UK Govt closed huge swathes of private industry, and more or less directly employed over half the UK population for 5 years uninterrupted. Practically nothing of the 'traditional' industries worked for anything other than Government money, apart from farms, food industry, shops and a token amount of clothing and domestic items manufacture. For 5 whole years.

According to the 'household budget' idiots, this would have left us with a decimated economy, a crushing mountain of 'debt' equal to 5 years or more of GDP, and plunged us into a deep and savage depression.

Instead, the only visible debts were a combination of the real ones: the $6.5bn dollars owed to Canada and the USA for provision of food, oil and war materials, and the sum total of war bond redemption costs in £Sterling. The Dollar debts began repayment in 1950, and the total apparent visible debt was only about a third of what the 'household' model would have predicted, i.e. about 2-2.5x GDP

The whole 5-year complete takeover by Govt didn't lead to much inflation, due to rationing and price controls.

As troops were demobilised in a planned way, because the infrastructure of the economy was still in place, although rather battered, output simply started again. Not quite as simple as turning on a tap, but not far off. The promised depression never occurred, probably helped by the stimulus of having to rebuild lots of things, and re-supply our old markets which had been turned off by the almost 100% cessation of international trade.

So the answer to the pessimists is: we weathered a similar international hiatus which involved the Govt paying almost everyone, for a full 5 years once, and bounced back. That is (with this current lockdown scheduled to probably last 4 months) an almost exact parallel economic hit, but 15 times greater in magnitude. And with more deaths along the way (approx 400,000)

With neo-liberal economic doctrine neither the UK nor the USA could have successfully fought Germany in WW II. War mobilization would have been paralyzed by fear of debt, which is a totally bogus issue in an intelligently run nation with its own fiat currency.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon May 11th, 2020 at 01:20:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And in the years immediately following the war (with c. 250% debt/GNP ratio) the UK was able to build up the NHS and public housing for all - something which was considered Corbynite looney left policy at the last election in a country with less than 100% debt GDP ratio and many times richer.  Of course the Gini index has been rising ever since... why give health & housing to the poor when the rich can keep all the wealth to themselves...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 11th, 2020 at 06:14:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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