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One comment I have read suggests that much of the testing in the USA may not be targetted at the most high risk groups, but at those who can afford to pay for them. If that is the case, the disease may be much more prevalent in the USA, particularly in poorer or densely populated areas than the overall test results indicate - on top of the high rate of false negatives from the Abbott test, in particular. I have also seen estimates for false negatives from the standard PCR tests of 30%.

All in all, even with declining death rates in most developed countries, it is doubtful whether the disease has been effectively controlled. Countries such as the US and UK, which are currently beginning to re-open their economies even as their pandemics are near their peak may well come to regret their decisions. The short-term economic costs of lock-down may be high, but the ongoing costs of continuing high rates of infection and death could be much higher again. Future historians may well point to this pandemic as signalling the end of "western" dominance of the world economy and politics.


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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 12:48:55 PM EST

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