Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Two plots I'd like to see are excess deaths compared to Covid deaths and positive tests compared to total tests over time. The FT did excess deaths, but is apparently above linking to sources/raw data. If the second ratio is stable over a period you could deduce that you are looking at a representative sample of the sub set of the population that you subject to tests. The first one should at least flag totally made up numbers. It is harder to hide a corpse than to invent a reason why it is there after all.

Absent good data I fall back to my priors: This is a problem that can only be solved by central planning in the medium term. Tourism is dead, restaurants are dead, travel is limited. Even more so than in the Great Depression the government unilaterally decides which business gets to stay a business and which closes. Who gets to work in which jobs and who doesn't. And most importantly who gets to keep or expand their social economic status and who doesn't. And here is the catch, vastly more than the nationalism, or "populism" that is usually blamed for the EU's ills. One of the core design principles of the EU is as a kind of Holy Alliance against socialism and for the protection of certain class interests that would feel threatened by any kind of rational planning. So we can't really do anything on the EU level since one nutty Austrian or Dutch can blow it up. And conversely the EU institutions are easily weaponized to rip pieces out of the corpse of Italy once the dust has settled. Like St. Sebastian, closer of Balkan routes of Austria is preening for having muddled through the prologue of the pandemic and Greater Depression (Bigly Depression? The Greatest Depression?) and vociferously objecting to any unconditional support for other European countries. Yet something like half the Austrian working class lives in those countries, so good luck with the second wave.
I apologize for getting a bit rumbly.

by generic on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 06:18:03 PM EST
Coronavirus: How to Do Testing and Contact Tracing - Tomas Pueyo - Medium
As you can see, Italy has been consistently ramping up their number of daily tests, but they're still not enough to know the extent of the situation. However, with this graph, they can start having a sense of when they will cross that threshold. If cases keep going down while tests keep going up, they might cross in a few weeks.

by generic on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 07:05:49 PM EST
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Since the scales of the red and green curve are different, what is the red area supposed to signify?

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 09:05:26 PM EST
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Coronavirus: How to Do Testing and Contact Tracing - Tomas Pueyo - Medium
In this graph, daily new cases are the red line and daily new tests are the green line. They have been scaled, so that they can be compared. As we just saw above, the experience of countries that controlled the epidemic indicates we should aim for at least 3% of positives, which means you want ~33 times more tests than cases. So the tests axis on the right is ~33x bigger than the cases axis on the left. With that you can easily see when you have enough tests.
by generic on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 09:12:29 PM EST
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States accused of fudging or bungling COVID-19 testing data
sample: TX, GA, VA, VT, FL
spec: RU, BR
omitted: CN, IT, FR, UK, DE, KR, JP
The risk is that politicians, business owners and ordinary Americans who are making decisions about lockdowns, reopenings and other day-to-day matters could be left with the impression that the virus is UNDER more CONTROL than it actually is.

In Virginia, Texas and Vermont, for example, officials said they have been combining the results of viral tests, which show an active infection, with antibody tests, which show a past infection. Public health experts say that can make for impressive-looking testing totals but does not give a true picture of how the virus is spreading. ...

Sat Feb 22nd, 2020 control
Tue Mar 3rd, 2020 viral load, export restrictions

U.S. mulls paying companies, tax breaks to pull supply chains from China

On Thursday [14 May], Trump signed an executive order  [EO 13922] that gave a U.S. overseas investment agency [IDFC, BUILD Act 2018] new powers to help manufacturers in the United States. The goal, Trump said, is to "produce everything America needs for ourselves and then export to the world, and that includes medicines."
Both Republicans and Democrats are crafting bills to decrease U.S. reliance on China-made products, which accounted for some 18% of overall imports in 2019. [...] "The whole subject of supply chains and integrity of supply chains... does have a greater place in members' minds," Representative Mac Thornberry, the top Republican on the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, told reporters May 7.

The medical supply chain and defense-related goods are top of the list.

"Coronavirus has been a painful wakeup call that we are too reliant on nations like China for critical medical supplies," said U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham in a press release on Friday. He is expected to issue a new bill this week.

archived Wed Feb 19th, 2020
Europe braces for coronavirus-induced drug shortages
Who Supplies America's Drugs?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed May 20th, 2020 at 04:29:53 PM EST
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