Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
With the world average coming in at 8.36% for % positive tests (confirmed cases/tests)

Data set is truly worthless to make any comparison between nations. Having followed closely the Dutch, Belgians, Germans, British and Washington DC policy it is expected that the "herd immunity" states have a similar awful death count and a poor testing record. Starting late, being unprepared, not only were these states behind the curve making it difficult to catch up with PPE: hospitals overwhelmed and not ready to start tests. In all these countries the frontline doctors and nurses paid the ultimate price. Once the outbreak is out of control (month of March) the death count will be insurmountable. Other states who were prepared, only needed to do containment in the primary clusters and therefore have a low number of tests.

Deaths /1M and Tests/1M
Belgium (773-56) - Dutch (329-17) - UK (501-35) - USA (263-32) - Germany (95-38). Both for the Dutch and the USA the death count is underrated. Should be adjusted for the deaths at home and in the nursing homes. The Dutch number will be near 500 deaths /M. The US were fortunate the governors of Blue States were firm on the lockdown, therefore transmission to the rural areas (Red States) was limited ... up till now.

The South-East Asia nations have a quite remarkable testing regime and a policy of early containment and tracking of infection spread. These nations were well prepared, not because they had more lead-time, but they were well prepared due to the earlier SARS Outbreak in 2003. The combined states of Thailand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong have a combined total of ...

Countries     Deaths  Cases/1M  Deaths/1M  Tests/1K  Pop.M
Japan          697      127         6         1.8    126.5
HK               4      141         0.5      22.5      7.5
Singapore       21     4601         4        38.4      5.8
South Korea    260      215         5        14.2     51.2
Taiwan           7       18         0.3       2.9     23.8
Thailand        56       43         0,8       4.1     69.8

Population 285 million
Number of deaths  1045

In comparison USA - UAE

States   Deaths  Cases/1M  Deaths/1M  Tests/1K  Pop.M    
NY       27,426    18,151    1,410      67.0    19.5
NJ        9,946    16,216    1,120      50.8     8.9
CT        3,219     9,947      903      41.9     3.6  
MT        5,482    48,888      795      61.6     6.9
DC          368     9,736      521      48.7     0.7
CA        3,052     1,897       77      27.9    39.5
UAE         210     2,211       21     158.1     9.9 [For comparison only]

by Oui on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 04:21:29 PM EST
Data set is truly worthless to make any comparison between nations.

Quite: each country has different criteria for compiling the numbers, starting with where they get the numbers from.

In addition, there are in some places political pressures to minimize the C-19 death rates. In Russia, Moscow authorities admitted that up to 60% of people who died while having tested positive had another cause of death than C-19 (like heart attack, pulmonary failure...) reported on death certificates. China has reported 82K infected people, but recent leaks tend to indicate the figure may be closer to 640K; also, the thousand of people retrieving urns with ashes of their deceased relatives when the lockdown was lifted in Wuhan. It's tempting: don't count the COVID-19 deaths and your numbers won't look so bad.

by Bernard on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 08:52:06 PM EST
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A lot of data has been shared on a daily basis ... hundreds of publications to track the virus to new clusters across the globe SE Asia to US West Coast and Europe to the New England States. Only the bubble of Washington DC was impermeable to scientific facts. White House asleep behind the wheel.

Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study | The Lancet - Jan. 31, 2020 |

Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately. Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.

My recent post - Lineage: Asia » West Coast; Europe » NY

In China there was a clamp down on media and doctors sharing information about the endemic ... however contact between scientists was allowed until US politicians came forward with conspiracy theories, misinformation and threats of lawsuits and economic sanctions. Bullying by Trump and WH advisors ...

by Oui on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 09:45:49 PM EST
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by Bernard on Sun May 17th, 2020 at 03:19:55 PM EST
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End game? Not quite ... the ace in his sleeve. See also the recent military appointments to oversee the development of vaccines.  A whole army of volunteers for the first trials .. we've seen this before during the fifties with CIA truth serums and sending the soldiers into battle after the atom bomb has detonated. Locked areas in Nevada, although the atomic explosions could be seen. The inhabitants of the Bikini Atoll were less fortunate ...

The Democrats are hapless and hopeless, doesn't bode well for the fall Presidential Election ... too often I hear and see the three Obama appointees Hillary Clinton - Susan Rice - Samantha Power - R2P echec.

US and UK lead push against global patent pool for Covid-19 drugs | The Guardian |

Crisis-Critical Intellectual Property: Findings from the COVID-19 Pandemic | Centre for Technology Management |
The Medicines Patent Pool and Unitaid respond to access efforts for COVID-19 treatments and technologies

The United States and 5-Eyes allies scouring the Internet to steal data ...

by Oui on Sun May 17th, 2020 at 06:01:36 PM EST
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by Oui on Sun May 17th, 2020 at 10:42:51 PM EST
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I accept the data is very noisy and inconsistent with different standards and systems for recording deaths and infections in different countries. In Ireland all deaths in hospitals, nursing homes and the general community due to Covid-19, in the opinion of the doctor, are counted even in the absence of a positive test. Sometimes deaths have been "uncounted" where subsequent tests were negative and another cause of death was found.

As a result, I think our numbers are fairly accurate, and currently stand at c. 1,500. However overall death figures reveal there are no "excess deaths" compared to previous years, so it seems that Covid deaths have simply displaced deaths from other causes. This is not as improbable as it sounds, because the median age of the deceased has been 84, average 82, and the lockdown could also have reduced deaths from flu and other communicable diseases.

The Russian death figures seem v. suspicious given the huge no. of infections, but there have also been reports of pressure on US doctors not to report deaths as Covid unless confirmed by test, and tests not being ordered for the deceased. The Chinese have been reported as not counting asymptomatic cases, and testing has been very sparse in many countries.

So yes, extreme caution in interpreting the results is required. I still think the patterns are interesting and often highlight the data gathering deficiencies noted above. There are so many people involved in this it is difficult for all but the most authoritarian of governments to prevent the truth leaking out, sooner or later. Even the Brits were shamed into including nursing home deaths having ignored them for a long time. Poor data is often better than no data at all.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 11:24:00 PM EST
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by Oui on Sat May 16th, 2020 at 04:27:33 PM EST
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Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 02:59:50 PM EST
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Trump has for him that his father lived up to the age of 93, but genetics is just about the only thing in his favor.

There must be several office pools about which septuagenarian will keel over before Election Day.

by Bernard on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 06:23:00 PM EST
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On the other hand, his grandfather died (in 1918) of a mere flu.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 07:56:37 PM EST
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...right after saying: It's just a flu!
by Bernard on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 08:32:55 PM EST
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never. gets. old.

by Cat on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 05:16:14 PM EST
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