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Up to recently my main expectation was that FG would try to string out the negotiations as long as possible with a view to the Greens ultimately rejecting the deal and giving FG the excuse they needed to call a new general election in August/September, assuming the lock-down was over by then. It is hard to see FG not improving on its disastrous showing in February, even if they don't quite get the post-pandemic bounce evidenced in recent polls.

However, they seem to have made a genuine attempt to reach a deal the other parties could support and so the odds must be on the programme being ratified and the FF/FG/Green coalition governing for the next 4 years. This means many FG ministers will lose their jobs and Varadkar will lose the premiership for 18 months - to the great joy of British Daily Express which exclaimed that the Brexit Meddling PM had been removed, without mentioning that he will be back in that job by the end of 2022.

However it also means that FF's Michael Martin will be in the hot seat for what promises to be a tough next 18 months. Éamon Ó Cuív is not alone in fearing that there will be only one major conservative party in Ireland after the next election, and that it will not be FF.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jun 16th, 2020 at 01:46:50 PM EST

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