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It seems to be an article about fertility, ignoring the likelihood of pandemic, war, or climate-induced starvation.

A cynical view might be that for the last 75 years or so, most of the global population has avoided widespread disease outbreaks because of the development of antibiotics, which now appears unsustainable. And that we have avoided widespread war because of a series of economic accidents related to the Cold War. And that we have avoided mass starvation because of the Green Revolution, also possibly not sustainable.

We are in a situation now where three of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are in a race. (The fourth, Spiritual Death, has already won the first heat.) By which catastrophe is humanity going to fail?

Relatively minor changes in fertility rates aren't going to be the controlling factor.

by asdf on Tue Jul 21st, 2020 at 11:47:35 PM EST
Over the generational time-scales we are discussing minor changes in fertility rates can indeed have huge consequences in terms of outcomes. It all depends on whether the children per mother rate is above or below 2.1, and it is now below 2.1 in much of Europe (especially Eastern Europe), Asia, the Americas and significantly above 2.1 only in Africa. Add in the factors you identified above, and many demographers now argue that the global population will peak mid-century below 9 Billion and decline thereafter. Male sperm counts seem to be declining as well, although there is little consensus as to why.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 22nd, 2020 at 11:03:11 AM EST
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