Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Over the generational time-scales we are discussing minor changes in fertility rates can indeed have huge consequences in terms of outcomes. It all depends on whether the children per mother rate is above or below 2.1, and it is now below 2.1 in much of Europe (especially Eastern Europe), Asia, the Americas and significantly above 2.1 only in Africa. Add in the factors you identified above, and many demographers now argue that the global population will peak mid-century below 9 Billion and decline thereafter. Male sperm counts seem to be declining as well, although there is little consensus as to why.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 22nd, 2020 at 11:03:11 AM EST
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