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Yea - the plan doesn't actually kick in till next year, but already it can have a positive effect on consumer, investor, and government confidence that they can spend now knowing their is at least some sort of framework for future stability, always assuming a second wave of the pandemic doesn't hit in a major way come the autumn/winter.

Deaths for the entire EU area are running at about 100 p/day for the entire EU area compared to over 1,000 for a lesser population in the USA. So so far so good, but there are absolutely no guarantees it won't come back. Russia and the UK now account for far more deaths than the whole EU, but they are a continuing reservoir for possible new sources of infection.

Meanwhile, post Brexit-UK may be running out of road when it comes to cheap borrowing on world markets and the currency risk won't help their world trade. Cheap money and oil won't last forever, but at the moment they are probably the main drivers for recovery.

Ireland was actually in danger of over-heating prior to the pandemic with first quarter growth still 5.2% even after a mid-March shutdown. So hopefully it can recover reasonably quickly although the travel and tourist industries look a lost cause for the foreseeable future and agriculture and food will be badly effected by a no deal Brexit.

There are a lot of known unknowns, not to mention the unknown ones...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jul 24th, 2020 at 03:48:25 PM EST
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