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First: nobody knows how Covid-19 will affect voter turnout.  This comment assumes it will be a wash with both sides equally affected.

In 2016 Trump got out 2,000,000 more votes then Romney did in 2012 and lucked into the Presidency by an archaic election system, the number of total white vote at 72% of total vote, and ~80,000 votes spread out across Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

The crucial demographic 2016: suburban white women.  They voted Trump and pushed him to victory.  The story of the 2018 mid-term elections was the Republican losing suburban white women.  Unless he gets them back he and the Republicans are toast.  

Also incumbent Presidents almost always lose votes in their second run.  

It has become a cliche that Trump drew to and got an inside straight in 2016.  Could it happen again?  Sure - there's no Law of the Universe saying nay.  Is there any evidence Trump is starting to close the gap?  No.  At the moment there's no evidence Trump is becoming competitive in his Must-Win states and plenty of polling evidence he and the rest of the Republicans are in deep trouble.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 25th, 2020 at 06:24:52 PM EST
Well, there's this RealClearPolitics piece quoted by Frank, purportedly showing Trump doing better than in 2016 in the "top battleground states", like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; or Florida. Not sure what to make of that, or even whether Trump needs to carry all these states he did win in 2016, some by less than 20,000 votes, if I remember.

Yes, the Repubs lost a lot of votes in these states in the 2018 midterms, but the picture for this year is still murky.

by Bernard on Wed Aug 26th, 2020 at 05:26:21 PM EST
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RealClearPolitics is a Right Wing propaganda outfit.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Aug 26th, 2020 at 07:33:21 PM EST
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I don't read the articles there. The link is just an average of polls in battleground states comparing Trump vs. Biden to Trump vs. Hillary. It's as good or bad as the underlying polls.

Overall, RCP is showing Biden up 7%, compared to 7.5% when I wrote the story. Nothing statistically significant, and well beyond the margin of error even allowing for Trump's electoral college advantage. But Trump is still doing 1% better than he was against Hillary at this stage in the campaign.

Make of that what you will.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Aug 26th, 2020 at 08:35:41 PM EST
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