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First: nobody knows how Covid-19 will affect voter turnout.  This comment assumes it will be a wash with both sides equally affected.

In 2016 Trump got out 2,000,000 more votes then Romney did in 2012 and lucked into the Presidency by an archaic election system, the number of total white vote at 72% of total vote, and ~80,000 votes spread out across Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

The crucial demographic 2016: suburban white women.  They voted Trump and pushed him to victory.  The story of the 2018 mid-term elections was the Republican losing suburban white women.  Unless he gets them back he and the Republicans are toast.  

Also incumbent Presidents almost always lose votes in their second run.  

It has become a cliche that Trump drew to and got an inside straight in 2016.  Could it happen again?  Sure - there's no Law of the Universe saying nay.  Is there any evidence Trump is starting to close the gap?  No.  At the moment there's no evidence Trump is becoming competitive in his Must-Win states and plenty of polling evidence he and the rest of the Republicans are in deep trouble.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 25th, 2020 at 06:24:52 PM EST

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