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Yeah, there is a lot of counting chickens and measuring drapes right now.

In 2016 I followed the polls and poll aggregators, in particular Sam Wang who used nothing but polls and their margins of error and reached the conclusion that it was 99% certain that Clinton would win and he would eat a bug if he was wrong. The bug was eaten and the rest is history. My conclusion was and is that his model was correctly constructed and the real take-away was large, unrepresented discrepancies between polls and actual vote outcomes. So far, I haven't seen much in terms of coming to terms with that, serious analysis of went wrong and correction of polling. So, sure the polls means something and if you ask the questions with the same methodology you can see movement, but they evidently can't predict the results.

In some sense, the voting population seems to grasp this according to some polls that has Biden over Trump in preference but Trump over Biden when people are asked who they think will win.

by fjallstrom on Wed Aug 19th, 2020 at 08:27:19 AM EST

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