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US elections, partly because of low turnouts, tend to be about base mobilisation more than persuading swing voters to switch. Trump has been superb at that.   His problem is he may mobilise the Democratic base to vote against him just a effectively as he mobilises his own base.

The remarkable thing is that Trump has never been below 40% in the RCP average of polls. That seems to be his floor. So my guess is that it all depends on the state of the Covid pandemic and associated economic slump in November that will decide the outcome.

No doubt Trump will announced the approval of a Vaccine  and/or effective treatment in the final weeks of the campaign. Then the fact that there may still be 1,000 people dying per day may hardly matter. It will just be the new normal.

What I can't fathom is his talking about postponing the election or even having a re-run if he disputes the outcome. I would have thought that would have even conservatives running for cover - and voting for Biden. But there is no telling how low the US polity can sink.

My best guess, at this stage, is that even lukewarm supporters will come out for Biden just to get rid of Trump. I would be surprised if Biden/Harris manage to stir up much enthusiasm in the Dem base, but this may be one of those rare occasions when that doesn't matter.

After that, the best we can hope for is that some halfway sane/competent people are appointed to key jobs. At least Dems aren't committed to proving government can't work.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Aug 19th, 2020 at 11:13:54 AM EST
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