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The remarkable thing is that Trump has never been below 40% in the RCP average of polls. That seems to be his floor. So my guess is that it all depends on the state of the Covid pandemic and associated economic slump in November that will decide the outcome.
No doubt Trump will announced the approval of a Vaccine and/or effective treatment in the final weeks of the campaign. Then the fact that there may still be 1,000 people dying per day may hardly matter. It will just be the new normal.
What I can't fathom is his talking about postponing the election or even having a re-run if he disputes the outcome. I would have thought that would have even conservatives running for cover - and voting for Biden. But there is no telling how low the US polity can sink.
My best guess, at this stage, is that even lukewarm supporters will come out for Biden just to get rid of Trump. I would be surprised if Biden/Harris manage to stir up much enthusiasm in the Dem base, but this may be one of those rare occasions when that doesn't matter.
After that, the best we can hope for is that some halfway sane/competent people are appointed to key jobs. At least Dems aren't committed to proving government can't work.
Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 18 23 comments
by Luis de Sousa - Sep 13 30 comments
by ARGeezer - Sep 7 42 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 8 70 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 4 18 comments
by Bernard - Aug 27 5 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 30 14 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 1823 comments
by Luis de Sousa - Sep 1330 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 870 comments
by ARGeezer - Sep 742 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 418 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 3014 comments
by Bernard - Aug 275 comments
by gmoke - Aug 27