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Harris is pretty far to the left in the context of American politics.

An October surprise is a standard feature of second-term presidential election campaigns. Belarus would be an opportunity, perhaps. It's easy to think up a suitable scenario.

Each state controls its own voting system. If many the states cannot come up with clear winners because of incompetent ballot counting processes, and the electoral college cannot come to agree on a candidate with an absolute majority of electoral college votes, then the election is put to the house of representatives. In such a contingent election case, each state gets one vote. 30 states out of 50 voted for Trump last time around.

by asdf on Thu Aug 20th, 2020 at 12:56:59 AM EST
For October surprise I have for some years figured Venezuela. Oil-rich, economy battered, no nearby allies that can back them up, and established bi-partisan consensus that Maduro has to go.

IIRC it is the new House that votes on president. What if the House elections are also disputed? Or are the districts to gerrymandered for such an outcome?

by fjallstrom on Thu Aug 20th, 2020 at 05:55:59 AM EST
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Then the law of succession goes into action. First, Speaker of the House. If there is no House, that's out. Then comes President pro tempore of the Senate. If Class 2 elections are also screwed up, that usually means the most senior member of the majority party (D), but that's not a firm rule, so it could also mean Biden (or Sanders....)
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Aug 20th, 2020 at 07:29:43 AM EST
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Majority Party of the US Senate is (R). I do not expect that to change.
by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Aug 20th, 2020 at 04:45:24 PM EST
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I said
If Class 2 elections are also screwed up
If the election doesn't take place, they are out. The Democrats have a majority among Class 1 and Class 3.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Aug 20th, 2020 at 04:51:31 PM EST
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Then we descend into Caesarism. I've been expecting it for some time.
by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Aug 20th, 2020 at 04:44:18 PM EST
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The House does indeed select the President if the election is indeterminate, but each member does not have a vote. Each state delegation gets one vote. Alabama iws equal to California. Montana is equal to New York. Without checking, that probably means Trump.
by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Aug 20th, 2020 at 04:48:10 PM EST
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30 states went Trump last time
by asdf on Thu Aug 20th, 2020 at 10:27:11 PM EST
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No one perceives Kamala?! in the "left." Not even DJT. He's not given her a byte of interest from the daily dross heaped on Biden's demented 40-year record. Meanwhile, Kamala?! is already struggling to fulfill her symbolic, multi-modal, inter-racial GOTV function; Hard-core cynics expect her to assume Biden's office mid-term, as she has spoken a few times of her duties as president.


The flashpoint for issue voters will be establishment of LAW 'N' ORDER. The violent protests--diverse factions under one caption--this summer will not be forgot by either liberals or conservatives. However, DNC media run on Trump "voter suppression" through US Postal Service sabotage has temporarily dampened feedback on the conspicuous absence of police reform in its official platform. (R) and (D) are barely indistinguishable from moderates, "center right," or conservatives from this domestic aspect. (R) target ethnic immigrants; (D) target lawless Trump. I fear, neither candidate will relate agitation to commercial disruption, attributable to global dependencies severed by the pandemic. US interstate commerce has rebounded sufficiently under press neglect of heroic "essential workers" and despite dismal failures of (5) five "Covid" stimulus bills enacted by congress--which has recessed until 16 Sep. Dramatic stimulus and FY budget appropriation bottle necks await. Unless the press relates imminent housing and credit losses, there will be no "October surprise" here.

The president-elect may well be contested, but neither party would permit any such archaic solution as prescribed by US Constitution to arbitrate. It didn't happen in 2000, and it won't happen now.

by Cat on Sat Aug 22nd, 2020 at 11:38:17 PM EST
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I watched the senate hearing Friday and read the GAO report (8 May 2020), following a month of marked "stakeholder" complaints and another month of lathering by DCCC to depose USPS Governors-appointed PM General. who started work June 16, 2020. The irony is, the DNC agitated for universal absentee voting all spring in fear of polling station infections.

House passes an additional $25 billion for Postal Service as Trump tweets opposition

The House of Representatives passed legislation Saturday to prevent any further changes at the United States Postal Service and to provide $25 billion in funding ahead of an expected surge in mail-in ballots in the November election. [...] President Donald Trump, in a Saturday tweet, called the controversy over the Postal Service a "hoax" and told Republican lawmakers to vote against it, but over two dozen House Republicans joined all Democrats in voting for the bill. It passed by a 257-150 vote.
The statement below is factually incorrect. The CARES Act didn't appropriate funds for USPS.
Democrats asked for $25 billion in recent coronavirus stimulus talks to help the Postal Service handle the uptick in mail-in ballots, but the stimulus talks have stalled without a deal in sight.
And USPS funding in the HEROES Act (House bill referred to senate), Title III, is restricted.


Which explains the stand-alone bill with the tawdry title Delivering for America, H.R.8015.

by Cat on Sun Aug 23rd, 2020 at 12:18:42 AM EST
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typical twitter swarm, in which one may note with interest not a single inquiry into USPS workforce, ie. number relieved from duty by SARS-CoV-2 positive test or COVID hospitalization.

The Dejoy did answer the question generally during the hearing. USPS national workforce "availability" shrunk 4%, led by pop-dense metropolitan areas like Philly, NY, LA, etc--not rural USPS districts.

btw, In my search for any version of Maloney's bill that actually specified a grant amount, I found that much disparaged Susan Collins (R-ME) had introduced her own dead letter 2 July, Postal Service Emergency Assistance Act.

by Cat on Sun Aug 23rd, 2020 at 01:36:18 AM EST
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C-SPAN | Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee on the U.S. Postal Service
PORTMAN (R-OH): What advice would you give voters? This is an opportunity for you to speak to the voters of Ohio and the country: Would you advise them to wait until the last minute? Or would you advise them at least a week?
DEJOY: The general word around here is, vote early.

Inside the Democratic Party's plan to prevent vote-by-mail disaster

But voting by mail is also more complicated than voting in person, and the party's campaign machinery has rapidly transformed itself into a system for helping voters navigate those obstacles. There's the matter of getting an absentee ballot to begin with, which voters must apply to do in most states. Esoteric factors from signature requirements to delivery times and even rules about how the ballot envelopes are sealed all result in more mail votes getting tossed each election compared to in-person votes. And unusual delays in mail delivery this summer have heaped more stress on the situation.

That's why Michelle Obama took time out from lacerating Trump in her Monday convention speech to implore supporters to vote early -- but also to keep close track of their ballots if they vote by mail or, if they feel able, to vote in-person.

"We've got to vote early, in person if we can. We've got to request our mail-in ballots right now, tonight, and send them back immediately and follow-up to make sure they're received," Obama said.

archived Thu Sep 20th, 2018; in no particular order; Mon Sep 24th, 2018

For the first time in my life, I requested an absentee ballot from the Maryland State Board of Elections two weeks ago. I still haven't have it, and the notification app hasn't confirmed my order.

by Cat on Sun Aug 23rd, 2020 at 03:08:45 AM EST
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Trump is going to war on low-income housing in suburbs. He once embraced it.
Trump's dramatic about-face on the issue came as he began to hammer a "law and order" theme after widespread racial justice protests this summer, lifting a page from the Richard Nixon 1968 playbook.
[...]
"This is an attempt to make a law-and-order case to an audience that no longer exists," Dworkin said. "The people who live in the suburbs today are largely going to be embarrassed by these arguments and do not want to be associated with racist housing policies, even when they have reservations about affordable housing."
evergreen NIMBY bloc meets HUD Sec.8 "Housing Choice" rental vouchers seeping into post-2009 REITs inventory. Baltimore city Community Development actually subcontracts NGOs to steer voucher tenants into adjacent county markets rather than rehab inner-city stock with HUD project-based-vouchers (PBV). This bias maximizes private-sector rental prices and RE speculation.
"The 'suburban housewife' will be voting for me. They want safety & are thrilled that I ended the long running program where low income housing would invade their neighborhood," [Trump] tweeted on Aug. 12. "Biden would reinstall it, in a bigger form, with Corey Booker [sic] in charge!"
by Cat on Sun Aug 23rd, 2020 at 04:15:14 PM EST
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Republicans have been appealing to the racism of white suburban women since the 1970s.  See Lee Atwater & etc.  And it worked well until it stopped working in 2018.

The Known/Unknown of this election is how well it will work in 2020.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 25th, 2020 at 06:32:01 PM EST
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waaaaaaill, I've long been skeptical of the learned helplessness, penury, and nobility of "suburban white women" (and minorities) in 'Merica. So I'm not inclined to put airs on the cheeto heir-apparent, especially after finishing the WONDERFUL novel about Cromwellian, "episcopal", and papist legacies, The Entailed Hat (1884).

What a hoot!

by Cat on Tue Aug 25th, 2020 at 09:09:40 PM EST
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Sunday, one of Podesta's so-call swing states set the scene of another police homicide followed by "vandalism and arson". Presumably, some kind of scout for the village's Blue Lives Matter "militia" turned a pack of protesters into casualties. Meanwhile, the twitterverse argues whether or not P&C insurance normally excludes claims attributable to "riot" and "acts of war".
Teen arrested in shooting deaths at Wisconsin protest against police brutality
"TODAY, I will be sending federal law enforcement and the National Guard to Kenosha, WI to restore LAW and ORDER!" Trump wrote on Twitter, without elaborating.
Having initially eluded Kenosha police, he was apprehended in IL today.
by Cat on Wed Aug 26th, 2020 at 07:37:34 PM EST
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btw, The Intelligence Community "has seen no evidence that foreign powers intend to manipulate mail-in voting"
by Cat on Wed Aug 26th, 2020 at 08:36:49 PM EST
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"In 'law-and-order' speech, U.S. Vice President Pence warns against Biden win"
< wipes tears >
irreproachable Economist/YouGov poll
Aug 23-25, 2020
by Cat on Thu Aug 27th, 2020 at 12:38:49 PM EST
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