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Sure, Boris wants to paint the EU as the bad guy, and he will have quite a bit of success with that, up until Christmas.

But that's not an endgame. Christmas isn't far off.

British exceptionalism seems to have come in several flavours over the centuries :

  1. actual Rule Brittania, covering roughly the 19th Century (dominant maritime power THEREFORE dominant trading power) -- not strictly applicable today

  2. Britain stands alone against the Nazis. The frame is a bit of a stretch when the enemy is the EU. And anyway; where are the Spitfires?

  3. Punching above its weight by taking sides in every European war, with the advantage that an island nation was too troublesome to invade (though only the weather saved them from the Spanish armada) -- but the EU is sensibly one and indivisible in trade matters.

So I see nothing but dead ends in Britain striking defiant poses and walking away from treaties... There will necessarily be humiliating climbdowns.

And it will hurt economically, and therefore be terminally unpopular, by early next year.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Sep 14th, 2020 at 04:36:13 PM EST
Well, Portugal profited well from point 3. Without their help in the XIV and XIX centuries Portugal would probably have been subjugated. There was a price to pay against Napolean, but not regretful.

I am no so certain we will need to wait for Christmas. If they walk away from negotiations on the 15th of October as promised things will deteriorate quite fast.  

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Mon Sep 14th, 2020 at 06:30:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
because Britain wanted a license to trade African slaves until they didn't anymore.
by Cat on Mon Sep 14th, 2020 at 07:59:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I seem to be in a minority here in thinking this could run and run and in not expecting any UK climbdown in the next few years. Yes, relations with the EU could deteriorate fast. I expect a trade war.

Yes the UK economy could be severely damaged, with Ireland surprisingly resilient in the circumstances, and not the weakest link in the EU chain as Brexiteers seem to expect.

Yes N. Ireland could be de-stabilised and momentum for Scottish independence grow. But Boris can refuse referendums in Scotland and N. Ireland, and he has a solid majority of loyalists to ride out any storms. Most of the "moderates" in the Conservative party were weeded out at the last election.

The tabloids will sell any EU setbacks as major British victories, and any UK depression as a necessary transition to a brave new world. The sunny uplands of FREEDOM will always be just around the corner.

The Tories will lose the next election, but that could be over four years away. And by then a lot of irreversible changes will have taken place, and Labour will be complicit in a lot of it, and not actually offer a way back.

This divorce is for keeps, and it will be a long and bitter one.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 14th, 2020 at 10:30:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One aspect I did not mention in the article is the Brexit party. If there is a prorogation to the transition period it is certain to overtake the Conservative party in polls. That could happen even with a FTA agreement in place, what they now call "Brexit only in name".

Therefore I expect a definite exit to unfold pretty soon.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 08:36:31 AM EST
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There was a point in time when I thought the Brexit Party could replace the Tories as the dominant conservative party in the two party fptp dialectic. But Farage sold out his own party in favour of Conservative candidates in marginal constituencies and so I don't think the Brexit party will ever come back as a major force. For all intents and purposes, the Conservative Party now IS the Brexit party with hardly any remoaners or even moderates left within its ranks.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 09:36:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Last night's Commons vote is a case in point. Yesterday the Guardian was talking up a big Tory "rule of law" rebellion... It amounted to 20 Tory abstentions, and zero votes against...
And today I can't even find an article on the subject on the Guardian site!

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 10:13:10 AM EST
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One must wonder what the likes of Theresa May and Geoffrey Cox did last night.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 06:43:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't bet the farm.  The masses can be led around by the nose by modern techniques of persuasion and propaganda.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Sep 14th, 2020 at 06:31:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The narrative is adolescent rebellion. That only ends with adulthood - unlikely in this situation - or a car crash.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Sep 14th, 2020 at 07:29:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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