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Chris Johns is a Welsh Irish Times columnist and usually a perceptive commentator on economic and political matters, especially pertaining to Brexit. He has a column up saying the UK faces a perfect trifecta of storms relating to Covid-19, Brexit, and the US Presidential Election, the combined effect of which could be very bad. I have commented as follows:
This piece started out promisingly, as when Chris promised to break his own rule about never making a forecast. But then it gradually fizzled out into saying that most of the risks are on the downside, and combined, could end up being very downward indeed. But we knew that.

And the decision about where the border will be has already been made in the Withdrawal Agreement signed and ratified only last January: It will be down the Irish sea. Break that Treaty and all bets are off. WTO terms can no longer be taken for granted as a lowest common denominator of any trading arrangement. A full trade war beckons if Boris fails to honour the Withdrawal agreement. And that will be a very bad outcome indeed. But we knew that.

A victory for Biden also means there will be no US/UK trade deal if the Withdrawal Agreement is broken. Britain will be in lockdown not only in terms of Covid-19, but in terms of economic activity and international trade as well. With 50% of UK exports going to the EU, and only 5% of EU exports going to the UK, that too, is very bad news for the UK. But we knew that.

Finally even sympathetic UK observers are saying Johnson has lost his confidence, energy and drive. His bluff has been called and he hasn't a leg to stand on. And he knows that. At the October15th. EU summit the EU will probably announce legal actions, sanctions, and punitive tariffs if Boris doesn't withdraw his Bill breaking international law. So how will that play out? Tell us something we don't know, Chris!



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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Sep 20th, 2020 at 04:15:55 PM EST

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