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If you recall, the original Brexit referendum was fought on the basis that the UK would remain in the Single Market and Customs Union, or at least would have a trade deal which granted them equivalent access "the easiest trade deal in history!"

It is only when Theresa May and then Johnson pivoted to wanting out of the Single Market and Customs Union as well that this all became an issue. Apparently the whole rationale for Brexit now is to free the UK from all meddlesome EU regulation, but this means customs controls and tariffs in the event of no deal.

If the UK proceeds with breaching the Withdrawal Agreement as well - which enshrined N. Ireland's place within the Single Market and Custom's Union - then all bets are off WTO terms as well, and a trade war will probably ensue.

In that case the EU will be powerless to prevent goods leaking control free between N. Ireland and Britain, and hence across the border into Ireland. The only effective way it could retaliate is by restricting British goods at Calais and other ports/airports, including Irish ports.

This could, and probably will get nasty.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Sep 18th, 2020 at 12:49:39 AM EST
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