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Nope. She did well out of it. In some ways financial services are more important than a new EU/UK trade deal as 70% of the UK economy is services of one kind or another. They are also increasingly important from an Irish and EU perspective as the EU cannot really become an economic superpower if its financial services are managed from the city of London. European financial capitals will keen to grab a share of that action after the transition period and Boris is delusional if he thinks London can hang on to it indefinitely.

Presumably ensuring this is done in an integrated way across the EU will be a key part of McGuinness' role.

In some ways I am relieved Ireland no longer has the trade portfolio as we were the weakest link in any EU resolve to tough out a trade war with the UK post a no-deal Brexit. UK Brexiteer sources always delight in pointing out that many economic studies have shown Ireland will suffer an  even larger decline in GDP post a no deal Brexit than the UK.

I remain sceptical about this. Ireland's exports to the UK are down from 90% of our total exports pre-EU membership to about 10% now and declining. The agriculture sector will be hit hard but I suspect much of those "exports" will leak across the border appearing as internal movements within N. Ireland/GB.

I suspect this situation will be tolerated by both sides as a necessary "ambiguity" until such time as a trade deal is ultimately agreed. With the UK currently threatening to renege on the already signed and ratified Withdrawal Agreement I can see all UK exports being blocked at Calais until the UK comes into compliance with the Withdrawal Agreement.

The Irish Economy has declined by 6.1% GDP in the second quarter with domestic demand (a more accurate reflection of the real economy) declining by 16.4%. But exports are booming so I suspect the whole economy will adjust to a no-deal Brexit rather more quickly than most commentators seem to expect.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 8th, 2020 at 12:44:36 PM EST
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