Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
My usual caveats about polls, but this is interesting:

Majority of voters don't see either Trump, Biden as mentally fit to be president: poll

A CNBC-Change Research national poll found that 55 percent of voters across the country felt Trump was mentally unfit, while 52 percent felt Biden was unfit.

Assuming that we have two large groups that feel only one is mentally fit, and a very, very small one that feels both mentally fit (like the group in exit polls who liked both candidates in 2016), and assuming that voters want to support the candidate they feel is mentally fit then we have:

45% supports Trump and feels he is mentally fit
48% supports Biden and feels he is mentally fit
7% neither is not mentally fit

Which would mean that how the voters split, who feel neither candidate is mentally fit for being president, could very well decide the election. I think that is a new situation. Remember, US elections used to be about which candidate was more liked.

by fjallstrom on Fri Sep 11th, 2020 at 02:05:18 PM EST
These are desperate times in the USA. My own take is that Biden is fit but could use more energy and stamina while Trump it totally unfit psychologically due to his severe Narcisistic Personality Disorder and also at more risk for a disabling stroke or heart attack. It will be interesting to see how this develops over the next two plus months.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Sep 11th, 2020 at 02:49:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
US elections are usually about personalities and which candidate you can identify more with but in this case it may come down to which candidate will surround himself with a more able cabinet/key advisors and what their respective policy agendas are. It's hard to see many younger and minority voters identifying strongly with either candidate, but as usual in a bipolar race, it comes down to voters deciding what their least worse option is.

For the moment Biden doesn't have to do or say much or offer great clarity as to his policy agenda - just being not Trump may be enough. He just has to avoid scaring off any of the fragile coalition building around him made up of quite liberal but also quite conservative voters. But if he does win he could reach record levels of unpopularity very quickly unless he institutes real change that people want.

Ronald Raygun was a similarly ancient candidate who couldn't do much, but his team delivered on changes which many voters where persuaded they wanted. Sometimes a very undynamic candidate can still be a catalyst for great change. Reagan was senile for much of his second term.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Sep 11th, 2020 at 04:18:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The "mental fitness" tests are the debates. Everybody can see the status of the current president's mental health, but Biden has been pretty much invisible up to now.
by asdf on Sat Sep 12th, 2020 at 04:04:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Biden might have the serious senior moment he didn't have in the debate with Sanders. But I'm honestly not sure how much that would damage his prospects. After all, I don't think anyone is really enthusiastic about voting for Biden as opposed to against Trump.
As always, turnout decides and anecdotally I've also seen a lot of this:

and this:

I think I can state in confidence that there will be an enthusiasm gap and that the ability to vote will be fucked with at an unprecedented scale.

by generic on Thu Sep 17th, 2020 at 10:23:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That is both sad and stupid! There especially needs to be some convenient way for U Mich. students to vote. I hope the Biden campaign at least has a phone bank operation in Mich. Those can be set up utilizing volunteers who remain at home.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 17th, 2020 at 06:41:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
civil suits contesting Census2020 reporting, disqualified candidates and voters, inferior court "national" injunctions, AND ballot counts will be flying fast 'n' furious well into 4Q2021 with assists by the cheeto-dictator and Decent Joe "surrogates".

I reckon, AP will err on side of the latter before polls close, as is the custom. Then Biden's admin will assume the office "under a cloud" (PHASE II) of "illegitimacy" until his ahh untimely death in this

EPIC transferal of power to Top Cop Kamala?!

archived stamps, rejected ballots, Nse Ufot must be new here, no particular order

What surprises me is that anyone on the planet looks to the USA to be a paragon of "democratic processes."
by Cat on Mon Sep 28th, 2020 at 03:25:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Under the U.S. Constitution, the House would vote by state delegation to settle such a contest, with each state casting a single vote.
Article II, sec. 1
The electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for two persons, of whom one at least shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves. And they shall make a list of all the persons voted for, and of the number of votes for each; which list they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate. The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates, and the votes shall then be counted. The person having the greatest number of votes shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of electors appointed; and if there be more than one who have such majority, and have an equal number of votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately choose by ballot one of them for President; and if no person have a majority, then from the five highest on the list the said House shall in like manner choose the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by States, the representation from each state having one vote; A quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. In every case, after the choice of the President, the person having the greatest number of votes of the electors shall be the Vice President. But if there should remain two or more who have equal votes, the Senate shall choose from them by ballot the Vice President.
Tilden, 1876
GD II, The Long Depression, 1873 - 1894-ish Spanish War
Compromise of 1877, Dixiecrat demands
by Cat on Mon Sep 28th, 2020 at 04:18:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
cockroach alert
by Cat on Mon Sep 28th, 2020 at 06:04:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks like this process could be frustrated if the Democrats refused to participate. The Republicans would not have a quorum. The Republicans would only have a bare majority  of states and Wyoming's ~570,000 residents would have the same voting  power as California's > 40 million, which would add legitimacy to such a boycott in the minds of many.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 01:37:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
International election observers back off... USA too Dangerous
There will be far fewer international election observers than planned at this year's fraught US presidential vote because of a combination of health concerns during the pandemic and the lack of an invitation from the state department for Latin American observers.
The electoral arm of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has had to scale down its ambitions because of Covid-related precautions and travel restrictions. It is sending 30 observers, instead of the 500 that had been recommended in view of the scale of concern about the US election.
The Organization of American States (OAS) has yet to receive an invitation to send observers to the 3 November vote, which is threatening to be the most contentious in modern US history as Donald Trump himself repeatedly claims it will be rigged and refuses to say whether he will leave the White House if defeated at the polls.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 09:05:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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