Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
My usual caveats about polls, but this is interesting:

Majority of voters don't see either Trump, Biden as mentally fit to be president: poll

A CNBC-Change Research national poll found that 55 percent of voters across the country felt Trump was mentally unfit, while 52 percent felt Biden was unfit.

Assuming that we have two large groups that feel only one is mentally fit, and a very, very small one that feels both mentally fit (like the group in exit polls who liked both candidates in 2016), and assuming that voters want to support the candidate they feel is mentally fit then we have:

45% supports Trump and feels he is mentally fit
48% supports Biden and feels he is mentally fit
7% neither is not mentally fit

Which would mean that how the voters split, who feel neither candidate is mentally fit for being president, could very well decide the election. I think that is a new situation. Remember, US elections used to be about which candidate was more liked.

by fjallstrom on Fri Sep 11th, 2020 at 02:05:18 PM EST
These are desperate times in the USA. My own take is that Biden is fit but could use more energy and stamina while Trump it totally unfit psychologically due to his severe Narcisistic Personality Disorder and also at more risk for a disabling stroke or heart attack. It will be interesting to see how this develops over the next two plus months.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Sep 11th, 2020 at 02:49:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
US elections are usually about personalities and which candidate you can identify more with but in this case it may come down to which candidate will surround himself with a more able cabinet/key advisors and what their respective policy agendas are. It's hard to see many younger and minority voters identifying strongly with either candidate, but as usual in a bipolar race, it comes down to voters deciding what their least worse option is.

For the moment Biden doesn't have to do or say much or offer great clarity as to his policy agenda - just being not Trump may be enough. He just has to avoid scaring off any of the fragile coalition building around him made up of quite liberal but also quite conservative voters. But if he does win he could reach record levels of unpopularity very quickly unless he institutes real change that people want.

Ronald Raygun was a similarly ancient candidate who couldn't do much, but his team delivered on changes which many voters where persuaded they wanted. Sometimes a very undynamic candidate can still be a catalyst for great change. Reagan was senile for much of his second term.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Sep 11th, 2020 at 04:18:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The "mental fitness" tests are the debates. Everybody can see the status of the current president's mental health, but Biden has been pretty much invisible up to now.
by asdf on Sat Sep 12th, 2020 at 04:04:18 PM EST
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Yeah, Biden might have the serious senior moment he didn't have in the debate with Sanders. But I'm honestly not sure how much that would damage his prospects. After all, I don't think anyone is really enthusiastic about voting for Biden as opposed to against Trump.
As always, turnout decides and anecdotally I've also seen a lot of this:

and this:

I think I can state in confidence that there will be an enthusiasm gap and that the ability to vote will be fucked with at an unprecedented scale.

by generic on Thu Sep 17th, 2020 at 10:23:30 AM EST
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That is both sad and stupid! There especially needs to be some convenient way for U Mich. students to vote. I hope the Biden campaign at least has a phone bank operation in Mich. Those can be set up utilizing volunteers who remain at home.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 17th, 2020 at 06:41:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]