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Majority of voters don't see either Trump, Biden as mentally fit to be president: poll
A CNBC-Change Research national poll found that 55 percent of voters across the country felt Trump was mentally unfit, while 52 percent felt Biden was unfit.
Assuming that we have two large groups that feel only one is mentally fit, and a very, very small one that feels both mentally fit (like the group in exit polls who liked both candidates in 2016), and assuming that voters want to support the candidate they feel is mentally fit then we have:
45% supports Trump and feels he is mentally fit
48% supports Biden and feels he is mentally fit
7% neither is not mentally fit
Which would mean that how the voters split, who feel neither candidate is mentally fit for being president, could very well decide the election. I think that is a new situation. Remember, US elections used to be about which candidate was more liked.
For the moment Biden doesn't have to do or say much or offer great clarity as to his policy agenda - just being not Trump may be enough. He just has to avoid scaring off any of the fragile coalition building around him made up of quite liberal but also quite conservative voters. But if he does win he could reach record levels of unpopularity very quickly unless he institutes real change that people want.
Ronald Raygun was a similarly ancient candidate who couldn't do much, but his team delivered on changes which many voters where persuaded they wanted. Sometimes a very undynamic candidate can still be a catalyst for great change. Reagan was senile for much of his second term.
Index of Frank's Diaries
This Time Magazine report on Biden's lack of any ground operation in MICHIGAN is just insane. Read --> https://t.co/JzgtDQcz8w pic.twitter.com/fRoqGAnDB8— Andrew Clark (@AndrewHClark) September 16, 2020
This Time Magazine report on Biden's lack of any ground operation in MICHIGAN is just insane. Read --> https://t.co/JzgtDQcz8w pic.twitter.com/fRoqGAnDB8
pic.twitter.com/oRGifsGFp2— UGA (@universityofga) September 16, 2020
I think I can state in confidence that there will be an enthusiasm gap and that the ability to vote will be fucked with at an unprecedented scale.
I reckon, AP will err on side of the latter before polls close, as is the custom. Then Biden's admin will assume the office "under a cloud" (PHASE II) of "illegitimacy" until his ahh untimely death in this
EPIC transferal of power to Top Cop Kamala?!
archived stamps, rejected ballots, Nse Ufot must be new here, no particular order
What surprises me is that anyone on the planet looks to the USA to be a paragon of "democratic processes."
Pelosi rallies U.S. House Democrats on possible presidential election decision https://t.co/kS6rJWur7y pic.twitter.com/g7yVuSDVvr— Reuters (@Reuters) September 28, 2020
Pelosi rallies U.S. House Democrats on possible presidential election decision https://t.co/kS6rJWur7y pic.twitter.com/g7yVuSDVvr
Under the U.S. Constitution, the House would vote by state delegation to settle such a contest, with each state casting a single vote.
The electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for two persons, of whom one at least shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves. And they shall make a list of all the persons voted for, and of the number of votes for each; which list they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate. The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates, and the votes shall then be counted. The person having the greatest number of votes shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of electors appointed; and if there be more than one who have such majority, and have an equal number of votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately choose by ballot one of them for President; and if no person have a majority, then from the five highest on the list the said House shall in like manner choose the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by States, the representation from each state having one vote; A quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. In every case, after the choice of the President, the person having the greatest number of votes of the electors shall be the Vice President. But if there should remain two or more who have equal votes, the Senate shall choose from them by ballot the Vice President.
Senator @ChrisVanHollen : Barrett 'should recuse herself' from any split decision [?] on election results @MSNBC https://t.co/pt3H61i0fq— Andrea Mitchell (@mitchellreports) September 28, 2020
Senator @ChrisVanHollen : Barrett 'should recuse herself' from any split decision [?] on election results @MSNBC https://t.co/pt3H61i0fq
There will be far fewer international election observers than planned at this year's fraught US presidential vote because of a combination of health concerns during the pandemic and the lack of an invitation from the state department for Latin American observers.
The electoral arm of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has had to scale down its ambitions because of Covid-related precautions and travel restrictions. It is sending 30 observers, instead of the 500 that had been recommended in view of the scale of concern about the US election.
The Organization of American States (OAS) has yet to receive an invitation to send observers to the 3 November vote, which is threatening to be the most contentious in modern US history as Donald Trump himself repeatedly claims it will be rigged and refuses to say whether he will leave the White House if defeated at the polls.
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