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For Arizona the lowest result came from Gravis +2. Gravis has been called the worst polling organization in America. It is a marketing firm that does polling. It has been speculated that it was hired specifically to put out a low number for Biden. Without Gravis the number for Arizona would be Biden +7.3. The rest of the polling organizations appear to be legitimate, but note that 538 has not banned Gravis. Make of it what you
For Florida Trafalgar has Trump +3, the worst result for Biden. But Trafalgar has not been banned by 538, so I will leave it in.
Obviously Florida is the closest, but Biden has many paths to victory without Florida, while Trump cannot say the same. Go Bloomberg! He is spending $100 million in the Florida media market to target various specific ethnic groups such as Puerto Rican immigrants, who can vote immediately, Mexicans, Haitians and other groups that have eligible voters. His money will strain Trump's budget if he is to counter.
After that Pennsylvania is the closest. If Biden takes Pennsylvania he has the election 99 times out of 100. Buckle up!
"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
Trafalgar seems fine, just a Republican-leaning house effect. There's a difference between "We've modeled the electorate a certain way" and "We're just making shit up". Silver adjusts for the former. They've even had a couple fairly good years, if memory serves.
Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
The 1-2% was as far as I can tell a fair assessment of the state polls. Considering the result, the chances should have been closer to 50-50% (essentially to close to tell in enough states). So polling was way of.
Ultimately Trump won by a combination of that, strategic FBI interference in the final month, ~80,000 votes spread across Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, a obsolete 18th Century political system, and a grotesquely incompetent campaign by the Democrats.
She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
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