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It is a week since Labor Day and the general situation is little changed. I have taken averages of poll results Since Sept 1 for AZ,MI,MN,PA & WS, and FL for presidential prefrences:
Those results are:
AZ - Biden +6   average of four polls likely voters
FL - Biden +2.2 average if five polls
MI - Biden +9   average if two polls likely voters
MN - Biden +8.7 average of three polls likely voters
PA - Biden +3.6 average of four polls likely voters
WS - Biden +5.5 average if six polls likely voters

For Arizona the lowest result came from Gravis +2. Gravis has been called the worst polling organization in America. It is a marketing firm that does polling. It has been speculated that it was hired specifically to put out a low number for Biden. Without Gravis the number for Arizona would be Biden +7.3. The rest of the polling organizations appear to be legitimate, but note that 538 has not banned Gravis. Make of it what you
will.

For Florida Trafalgar has Trump +3, the worst result for Biden. But Trafalgar has not been banned by 538, so I will leave it in.

Obviously Florida is the closest, but Biden has many paths to victory without Florida, while Trump cannot say the same. Go Bloomberg! He is spending $100 million in the Florida media market to target various specific ethnic groups such as Puerto Rican immigrants, who can vote immediately, Mexicans, Haitians and other groups that have eligible voters. His money will strain Trump's budget if he is to counter.

After that Pennsylvania is the closest. If Biden takes Pennsylvania he has the election 99 times out of 100. Buckle up!

 

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 03:06:17 AM EST
I believe 538 has only banned one pollster -- Research 2000 -- and it was because they were faking their results.

Trafalgar seems fine, just a Republican-leaning house effect.  There's a difference between "We've modeled the electorate a certain way" and "We're just making shit up".  Silver adjusts for the former.  They've even had a couple fairly good years, if memory serves.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 02:19:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Silver said Hillary would win.
by StillInTheWilderness on Mon Sep 21st, 2020 at 11:19:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But if I recall he was smart enough to present his conclusion in probabilistic terms which meant there was always a significant % chance Trump would win in his model.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 10:06:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So did every other forecaster.  Silver was the one saying Trump had a 30% chance while everybody else was giving him a 1-2% chance.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 11:04:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Silver's model had IIRC a lot of secret sauce. If so we don't know why he had Trump at 30%. Gut feeling? Covering his reputation for the future?

The 1-2% was as far as I can tell a fair assessment of the state polls. Considering the result, the chances should have been closer to 50-50% (essentially to close to tell in enough states). So polling was way of.

by fjallstrom on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 02:19:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bingo! And no way of telling if it's good this time. A lot depends on how man Bernie supporters will stay home and how many will vote Biden (or Trump!).
Of course, with mail-in to a central location who knows what the real vote is?  We got notices in the mail that my wife, I and my brother-in-law have not submitted applications for absentee ballots. I know he did because my wife mailed it. (WE did not apply). He's in a nursing home from an automobile accident, he HAS to vote absentee. I'll bet the records will show that we all did.
by StillInTheWilderness on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 10:30:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump received the highest number of votes of any Republican presidential candidate.  His 62,984,828 votes in 2016 was 2,051,324 more than Romney in 2012.  Those voters would not have been included in "Likely Voter" polling screens because they didn't vote in 2008. In fact,  Have to go back and do an analysis of the difference(s) - if any - between 2016 Likely Voter and Registered Voter polls.

Ultimately Trump won by a combination of that, strategic FBI interference in the final month, ~80,000 votes spread across Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, a obsolete 18th Century political system, and a grotesquely incompetent campaign by the Democrats.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 02:39:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"...and a grotesquely incompetent campaign by the Democrats." Which is being replayed because it worked so well last time.
by asdf on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 05:41:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's what the DLC do.  They'll get their "campaign contributions" ( = bribes) from the 1% regardless of it they win or lose ... so they don't care.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 11:04:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In truth it is hard for Neo-Liberal 'centrists' NOT to be incompetent. They can't make the traditional Democratic appeal to the bottom 2/3 of the income distribution, as that might offend their precious rich donors. "Where your treasure lies there also  is your heart."


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 24th, 2020 at 05:40:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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