Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
It is a week since Labor Day and the general situation is little changed. I have taken averages of poll results Since Sept 1 for AZ,MI,MN,PA & WS, and FL for presidential prefrences:
Those results are:
AZ - Biden +6   average of four polls likely voters
FL - Biden +2.2 average if five polls
MI - Biden +9   average if two polls likely voters
MN - Biden +8.7 average of three polls likely voters
PA - Biden +3.6 average of four polls likely voters
WS - Biden +5.5 average if six polls likely voters

For Arizona the lowest result came from Gravis +2. Gravis has been called the worst polling organization in America. It is a marketing firm that does polling. It has been speculated that it was hired specifically to put out a low number for Biden. Without Gravis the number for Arizona would be Biden +7.3. The rest of the polling organizations appear to be legitimate, but note that 538 has not banned Gravis. Make of it what you

For Florida Trafalgar has Trump +3, the worst result for Biden. But Trafalgar has not been banned by 538, so I will leave it in.

Obviously Florida is the closest, but Biden has many paths to victory without Florida, while Trump cannot say the same. Go Bloomberg! He is spending $100 million in the Florida media market to target various specific ethnic groups such as Puerto Rican immigrants, who can vote immediately, Mexicans, Haitians and other groups that have eligible voters. His money will strain Trump's budget if he is to counter.

After that Pennsylvania is the closest. If Biden takes Pennsylvania he has the election 99 times out of 100. Buckle up!


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 03:06:17 AM EST

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