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I'm still not sure how much I buy what possibly seems like Biden opening up a huge lead in Arizona, but given Trump's pause there and some of the high-quality public polls, I assume Trump's campaign is seeing the same thing.

Biden is seemingly doing very well with suburbanites and voters aged 65+ relative to how Dems usually perform, so doing well in Arizona wouldn't be altogether surprising.  (It makes the Florida polling mildly surprising, but I think the close race here has a lot to do with Cuban voters.)

I think I have seen enough to say Arizona's more likely to flip than North Carolina, where the race has stayed stubbornly close and reads as essentially a toss-up in the high-quality polls.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 10:53:40 AM EST
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Of course, I say the Florida polling is mildly surprising and then Monmouth (one of the best pollsters in the US) comes out with a Florida poll that has Biden leading by...pretty much exactly what you'd expect given the national polls.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 09:10:34 PM EST
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What about the Florida Atlantic poll that shows a tie? What do you know about FAU polling?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 02:02:11 AM EST
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I don't know much about their polling.  Generally I read the college polls but don't put too much stock in ones that aren't Monmouth, Marquette, Marist, Siena or (their inability to poll Florida aside) Quinnipiac.

It looks to me like Biden's up 7 or 8 nationally, and Florida is astonishingly reliable at being roughly R+3 against the popular vote.  Not that we couldn't see that change obviously, but until it does, that's my assumption.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 10:40:23 AM EST
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