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I'm still not sure how much I buy what possibly seems like Biden opening up a huge lead in Arizona, but given Trump's pause there and some of the high-quality public polls, I assume Trump's campaign is seeing the same thing.

Biden is seemingly doing very well with suburbanites and voters aged 65+ relative to how Dems usually perform, so doing well in Arizona wouldn't be altogether surprising.  (It makes the Florida polling mildly surprising, but I think the close race here has a lot to do with Cuban voters.)

I think I have seen enough to say Arizona's more likely to flip than North Carolina, where the race has stayed stubbornly close and reads as essentially a toss-up in the high-quality polls.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 10:53:40 AM EST
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