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I believe 538 has only banned one pollster -- Research 2000 -- and it was because they were faking their results.

Trafalgar seems fine, just a Republican-leaning house effect.  There's a difference between "We've modeled the electorate a certain way" and "We're just making shit up".  Silver adjusts for the former.  They've even had a couple fairly good years, if memory serves.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 02:19:35 PM EST
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Silver said Hillary would win.
by StillInTheWilderness on Mon Sep 21st, 2020 at 11:19:31 PM EST
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But if I recall he was smart enough to present his conclusion in probabilistic terms which meant there was always a significant % chance Trump would win in his model.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 10:06:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So did every other forecaster.  Silver was the one saying Trump had a 30% chance while everybody else was giving him a 1-2% chance.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 11:04:21 AM EST
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Silver's model had IIRC a lot of secret sauce. If so we don't know why he had Trump at 30%. Gut feeling? Covering his reputation for the future?

The 1-2% was as far as I can tell a fair assessment of the state polls. Considering the result, the chances should have been closer to 50-50% (essentially to close to tell in enough states). So polling was way of.

by fjallstrom on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 02:19:16 PM EST
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Bingo! And no way of telling if it's good this time. A lot depends on how man Bernie supporters will stay home and how many will vote Biden (or Trump!).
Of course, with mail-in to a central location who knows what the real vote is?  We got notices in the mail that my wife, I and my brother-in-law have not submitted applications for absentee ballots. I know he did because my wife mailed it. (WE did not apply). He's in a nursing home from an automobile accident, he HAS to vote absentee. I'll bet the records will show that we all did.
by StillInTheWilderness on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 10:30:52 PM EST
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It didn't have "secret sauce".  He explained it numerous times:

He correctly noted that Clinton's lead wasn't very large, that polls are subject to error, and that there were a ton of undecided and third-party voters -- all adding up to a great deal more uncertainly than (say) 2012.

A candidate leading by 3 points with over 10% of voters undecided is not a 98-99% favorite.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 11:57:52 AM EST
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Has he published his model?

If so, I must have missed it, but I would be delighted to read it. If not, the model is per definition secret.

by fjallstrom on Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 12:48:45 PM EST
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Nate Silver: Polling analysis

Miscalculation by Democrats in swing states and Trump's Strategy based on data Facebook / Cambridge Analytica ... only Electoral College vote counts.

by Oui on Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 02:50:07 PM EST
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Trump received the highest number of votes of any Republican presidential candidate.  His 62,984,828 votes in 2016 was 2,051,324 more than Romney in 2012.  Those voters would not have been included in "Likely Voter" polling screens because they didn't vote in 2008. In fact,  Have to go back and do an analysis of the difference(s) - if any - between 2016 Likely Voter and Registered Voter polls.

Ultimately Trump won by a combination of that, strategic FBI interference in the final month, ~80,000 votes spread across Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, a obsolete 18th Century political system, and a grotesquely incompetent campaign by the Democrats.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 02:39:52 PM EST
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"...and a grotesquely incompetent campaign by the Democrats." Which is being replayed because it worked so well last time.
by asdf on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 05:41:03 PM EST
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It's what the DLC do.  They'll get their "campaign contributions" ( = bribes) from the 1% regardless of it they win or lose ... so they don't care.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 11:04:59 PM EST
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In truth it is hard for Neo-Liberal 'centrists' NOT to be incompetent. They can't make the traditional Democratic appeal to the bottom 2/3 of the income distribution, as that might offend their precious rich donors. "Where your treasure lies there also  is your heart."


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 24th, 2020 at 05:40:08 PM EST
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